Part 5- The Preview for the AFC East Division.
• New England Patriots $1.25
• Miami Dolphins $4.50
• Buffalo Bills $13
• New York Jets $23
Under/Over regular Season wins
• New England Patriots 11.5 wins Under $1.48, Over $2.65
• Miami Dolphins 7.5 wins Over $1.67, Under $2.25
• Buffalo Bills 6.5 wins Over $1.63, Under $2.30
• New York Jets 6.5 wins Over $2.40, Under $1.60
Gargy- If you are looking for a “lock” in any multi its the New England Patriots. $1.25 to win the division is short, but its better than bank interest. No Wes Welker, No Hernandez, injury concerns for Gronk = no problems. Do not bet against Tom Brady. Can they win 12 games this year at $2.65? I am not sure, they have a nice schedule as they play the AFC North and the NFC South. Shirt give us a random stat about how good the golden boy is or is there a huge upset in the AFC East?
Shirt- Well Gargy, I’m glad you asked. There’s an impression that Brady is Brady not because he is, well, Brady, but because of the high quality, stable group of targets he has had over the years – most recently Welker, Hernandez (Grub), Gronkowski. See the thing is, Brady is actually very high up the list of modern day greats when it comes to breaking in new receivers – he makes receivers great, not the other way around. There has been evidence for this in his performances in the preseason, where he has had little or no regard for the fact that his previous targets were warming, respectively, the bench, a jail cell, and a brand new trailer on the outskirts of Denver. I won’t bore you with the details of why this is so but they make interesting reading and can be found here. The problem I have with the Patriots (aside from the fact that an [alleged] murderer of the most dubious character was one of their star players), and the reason I would never back them at the start of the season, is that they are so dependent on Brady. Ridiculously, junky-like dependant on Brady – even more so with the core receiver group changing so drastically. So, will they win the Division – in a canter. Will I be taking the $1.25, heck no. And look at that, an entire Patriots preview without mentioning Tim Tebow….d’oh! I’m not going to waste my time – get all your Tebow news here
Gargy-Miami Dolphins were very active over the off season, they added a great pass rusher with Dion Jordon and Tannehill will be much better in his second year. I think they will go over 8 wins at $1.67, Shirt?
Shirt- I like the Dolphins this year. I like what they did last year – sure they finished 7-9, but that included two OT losses, and 3 more losses by a TD or less. Tannehill will be better for the experience, and they are lucky enough to be in a division with the two muppet teams below which gives them a possible 4 wins locked away. They also have very winnable games against the Browns, Colts, Bucs, Saints, Bengals and Panthers. I like that Tannehill will have Mike Wallace to throw too, and I think they’ve drafted well. They have a solid ground game in Miller and their defense is serviceable if not brilliant. They could easily go 9+ this year and I like them to make a long overdue playoff appearance.
Gargy- The Bills have a couple of standout players- Byrd and Spiller spring to mind and then too many average ones. They traded for journeyman Kevin Kolb and drafted Manuel at QB, personally they have to start Manuel right? I think they will win 6-7 games, but my advice is do not bet on them for unders/overs. Shirt how do you see things for the Bills?
Shirt- Ah the Bills. I hope they’ve found their new QB, I really do. I actually don’t think Ryan Fitzpatrick was that bad but he also ain’t that good (hello Kevin Kolb) To say they need a franchise quarterback is an understatement – they haven’t managed to field a decent quarterback since the great Jim Kelly took his last snap in 1996. Check out some of these names – Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Alex Van Pelt, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards, Brian Bohm. When you add in Fitzpatrick and now Manuel/Kolb that’s 11 quarterbacks since Jim, and only a couple of those were relievers. Yikes. I won’t be even looking at them as a betting proposition until we see some positive effects from new coach Marrone on the team morale, we find out whether his offence is going to give CJ Spiller more ball and their defense proves themselves capable of limiting a team to less than 40.
Gargy- The Jets, yikes. I think they are in for a long year. Mark Sanchez is done, they surely must start rookie Geno Smith right? But he has was awful in his pre season game throwing 3 picks plus he has the mother of chips on his shoulders. They traded their best defensive player away (Revis) and did draft a couple of potential studs but they will take time to develop. Get on unders, they will win 3 or 4 games all year. I believe they will have the #1 draft pick in 2014 and therefore most talk for the Jets this year will be do they draft a QB or Clowney. Shirt I am sure you are with me on no more than 6 wins this year?
Shirt- There’s one burning question for me about the Jets, one issue which I think should be at the forefront of every football fan’s mind, and that is simply “How did Rex Ryan lose so much weight?” The tempting answer is “because he’s so stressed about how he can possibly coach more than 6 wins out of this train wreck”. The actual answer is “lap band surgery” which when it come to weight loss, to me sounds like the easy way out (I can just imagine all the fatties reading this trying to shut their laptop in outrage, only to discover it is jammed open by a fat roll). But herein lies a greasy window into the underlying cultural issue for the Jets – they take the easy way out. They are dysfunctional, fractured, and to my amateurish outsider view, lazy. They are sitting around eating fried chicken waiting for lap band surgery to make them svelte and competitive, rather than getting off their fat ars*s and doing the hard work to make it happen.