AFC West Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)
Denver Broncos $1.24 (11.5 games – Under $1.82/Over $2.00)
San Deigo Chargers $6 (8 games – Over $1.60 / Under $2.35)
Kansas City Chiefs $8.50 (8.5 games – Under $1.50/Over $2.60)
Oakland Raiders $41 (4.5 games – Over $1.57 / Under $2.40)
AFC East Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)
New England Patriots $1.22 (10.5 games – Over $1.54 / Under $2.50 )
Maimi Dolphins $8 (8 games – Under $1.60 / Over $2.35)
New York Jets $9.50 (7 games – Over $1.82 / Under $2.00)
Buffalo Bills $13 (6.5 games – Over $1.67/Under $2.20)
AFC South Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)
Indianapolis Colts $1.67 (9.5 games – Under $1.74 / Over $2.10)
Houston Texans $3.25 (7.5 games – Over $1.60 / Under $2.35)
Tennessee Titans $6.50 (7 games – Over $1.82/Under $2.00)
Jacksonville Jaguars $19 (4.5 games – Over $1.45 / Under $2.75 )
AFC West Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)
Pittsburgh Steelers $2.60 (8.5 games – Over $1.60 / Under $2.35)
Cincinnati Bengals $2.80 (9 games – Under $1.74 / Over $2.10)
Baltimore Ravens $3.50 (8.5 games – Over $1.91/Under $1.91)
Cleveland Browns $10 (6.5 games – Under $1.82/Over $2.00)
Gargy – Shirt we have less than a week until the season kicks off so I am going to combine the AFC into 1 post and highlight a few of my special bets with my insightful comments.
AFC West; Denver win this division, but $1.25 is a horrible price. Having said that if your bank said they would give you a term 5 month terms deposit with an interest rate at 25% you snap it up and wait for the manager to be committed. The more you bet the more you win. Get on! But don’t back over /unders. I think the Chiefs will regress and wont make the playoffs, I think the Chargers will grab a wildcard spot and will 8+ games, Oakland will have a high draft spot in next years draft.
AFC East, its so boring but the Pats win this division, Brady is a Gun. This division really worries me, as the rest of the starting QB’s are all questionable. The Jets defence is good, but with Geno Smith or the permanently injured Michael Vick under the gun I can’t see them winning more games than they lose. The Bills will struggle and Tannehill doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in me.
AFC South – If you listen to me and have 1 bet, do yourself a favour and back Indy to win 10+ games at even money, they will be better than last year, Luck will continue to get better, he has better receivers to throw to and their stout defence has bulked up. Seriously get on. The Texans drafted Clowney and everyone is raving about the pairing of him and JJ Watt and how great they will be, listen to me- they better put a lot of pressure on the QB because the secondary was dreadful last year and hasn’t been upgraded and they have a worse QB. Please tell me where is the hype is coming from. They win 7 games max. The Titans wont be much better than last year however I think the Jags will improve, they wont make the play offs but they wont finish 3rd last overall. Especially if they give Blake Bortles the starting QB job.
AFC North – The toughest division in football. I think this is the year Andy Dalton wins a play off match, The $3 is a nice price- I cannot have the Ravens and I think the Steelers will be better than last year but not as good the Bengals. The Browns. OMG, the best thing about Cleveland this year will be the homecoming of Lebron, not Jonny football and his bunch of un organized men. The Browns are in for a very long year.
In summary my division winners- Broncos/Pats/Colts/Bengals, wild card is much harder but lets say Chargers and Steelers.
Shirt are you with me brother?
Shirty – In a word Gargy, no. I think there are two great value bets in this Conference, and I suggest you have both of them – they are unlikely to both get up, but the prices are so good that you can afford to drop one. The first is the Dolphins to win the AFC East ($8), the second is the Chargers to win the AFC West ($6). The rationale for both is similar – I expect both teams to continue to build on solid performances last year; I think both have made sensible personnel decisions in the off season, and I think the prices offered for both the Pats and Broncos are lazy on the part of the bookies – they don’t account for the fact that both Manning and Brady are a year closer to retirement and that they have done nothing revolutionary with their teams. If I had to pick between the two I would take the Chargers, who I think will have a massive year.
With that in mind, I also have to take the Dolphins over 8 ($2.35) and the Chargers Over 8 ($1.60. An absolute gift. When you look at their schedule they could start the year 6-0).
I’m with you Gargy on the regression of the Chiefs, as are the punters with the Under 8.5 into $1.50. Watch their offensive line fold like Gargy with a pocket pair behind a re-raise. Poor old Alex Smith will cop an absolute pounding this year – they will win 6 games max. I haven’t got quite your enthusiasm for the Colts but am with you on the Texans – the under 7.5 looks reasonable value @ $2.35. I think the Jags can win some games this year, but with a line at 4.5 and the odds under $1.50 for overs, I will pass on them.
The AFC North is an interesting one. Tend to agree that Cinci is probably the pick here, but it’s a tricky line at 9. I am happy to call this one a no touchy.
So, playoff teams – Cinci (no confidence), Chargers, Dolphins, Colts, Pats, Broncos.
Stay tuned for later in the week when we release our real bets for the season and our best bets of week 1.