BOOM we are back !!! The Seahawks opened up with a fairly easy win over the packers yesterday, the NFl doesn’t really swing into overdrive until Sunday when we have 13 games taking place.
Hands up who remembers some of Gargy’s key betting tips for the NFL?
1. Home teams win more often than away teams
2. Be careful when backing favourites in division games, no matter how badly teams are, hey always lift for the divisional rivals
3. When selecting your own start, you want +3.5 or +7.5
4. If you get burned the week previous- double down.
Righto with that out of the way, here is how I see week 1.
First up, I like the Jets… Yeah I know what you are thinking, the Jets are you out of your mind, but I thought long and hard about it and the Jets front 7 is excellent, their secondary not so great especially with Dee Milliner out with an ankle injury but they will stop the run and force rookie QB Derek Carr to throw the ball. I think Geno Smith will be better in year 2 and then when in certain spots they will be able to bring on my man Mike Vick who will scrabble and move the chains. The $1.41 is a tad skinny but I cant see Oakland running up many points.
Next up I like the overs in the Dallas/49 ers match. The line in 50.5 and I reckon it wont be enough. The Dallas defence will be in the bottom 3 in the NFL, they will leak points every match, but the thing is their attack will be a top 10, maybe top 5- Dez Bryant is awesome, Witten, Murray at RB to name a few, Romo loves chucking picks but if he stays healthy will throw 20+ TD’s at a minimum They will consistently score 25+ points every match but leak 30+. The Niners defence is missing Bowman and Aldon Smith- this lack of pass rush will put a lot more pressure on their the secondary which will have to step up if they are to go any good.
Shirt suggested betting $50- lets double it and spend $100 each week, so we will have-
$50 on the jets to collect $72
$30 on the overs to collect $57
$20 on the above double into Eagles, Bronco to collect $74
Now I am not going to back these (so don’t call me a p*ssy) but here are a couple of outsiders who represent value-
The Vikings @ Rams; $2.51 Head to head or if you nibble off a start. The Rams have a very inexperienced QB under the gun with Bradford blowing out his knee, the Rams defence is good, but they are up against AP who is great running back.
The Benglals head to head vs divisional rivals at Baltimore; Please see rule 1, 2 and 3; lets take the +7.5 for Cinci for arguments sake.