Well, this section sure didn’t live up to its name last week did it… Thanks in part to the Chargers offense screwing up basic things like snapping the ball, running a route, catching passes etc. but mostly thanks to the Chicago Bears sucking so badly. So I have instituted a new rule that I am going to stick to this year. Eliminate the obvious. Find the one game that you think just can’t lose, where the result is so blindingly obvious that you are even tempted to chew off more points for a better price. Find this Sure Fire Winner (Trade Mark Pending) and strike it from your betting ticket.
My SFW pick for this week: The Packers at the -8 at home to the Jets. I think the Packers will win, and win well (there’s no way they go 0-2 is there??), but the little voice in my head (that sounds a bit like Tony Soprano for some reason) is telling me to put the house on it, so that’s an ETO if I ever saw one. No need to carry me this week Aaron.
So, steering away from Green Bay I am going to head just over yonder to Minnesota. The Vikings were good last week, the Patriots, not so much (Go Fins!). Now you don’t expect the Pats to lose the opening two games of the season (or the Saints or Packers for that matter), but as Gargy kindly pointed out in his previous post, they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. 2 and 8! And if we follow the “dogs with the points” theory as per my previous post, and that dog is defending its own turf, and it already has money coming for it – it’s a no brainer (although not a Sure Fire Winner)
$50 Vikings + 3 @ 1.87 to return $93.50
One of the other big surprise packets for me out of the opening weekend were the Titans, and they continue to fly under the radar. Locker looked pretty good against the Chiefs, and while I picked the Chiefs to regress this season, it was still an emphatic win by the Tennessee boys at Arrowhead. Back in Nashville, they face a Cowboys outfit that was beaten by the 49ers by half time, and I think they can do it again. The line is at -3.5 which worries me a tad, so I am going to multi up with another team that I thought was super impressive week 1;
$50 Titans (H2H) into Falcons +5 @ 2.96 to return $148
There are a couple of no-touchies for me this week (in addition to my SFW above). The first is the Seattle @ Chargers game. I think Gargy is right that Seattle will provide no relief from the defensive pressure applied by Arizona, and may even take it up a notch. Having said that, the Chargers could have won that game had a few things fallen in their favour. The Chargers could spring back here. I also think you want to stay away from Arizona @ New York. It is an emotional time in NYC at the moment, being the anniversary of 9-11. I don’t like messing with emotion and I would like to see one more week of Eli adapting to the new offence before writing them off for the season. Finally, no betting on Steelers @ Ravens – the whole Ray Rice distraction vs seige mentality thing is too hard to split for mine.