Underdogs with the points, that’s apparently the punting lesson from week 1. Bill Simmons over at Grantland has been talking about this for weeks in his columns and on his podcast (the BS Report – essential listening for any self respecting NFL fan). Last year saw favourites cover the start more often than not. Make no mistake though, this was an aberration. All things being equal, apparently on a statistical basis you are generally slightly better taking the underdog with the points than the fav giving them away. And the Simmons theory is that this year will see a “snap back” where the underdogs get their revenge.
So how is that looking after week 1? Well, using the record of the lines available at Football Locks week 1 was most certainly a Dog’s Day Out;
Wow. Bearing in mind that if the bookies were perfect, the Underdog/Fav split should be 50/50, that’s a pretty big win for the Dogs. Now I have no idea what the stats are on Dogs getting home in week 1 (maybe it’s more likely because of uncertainty), and whether we are likely to see a correction in week 2. I’m also not sure whether this result will cause Vegas to tighten the lines a bit. But on the face of it, there seems to be something to what Simmons is saying. Take the points – it’s the Year of the Dog!!