Well, last week Gargy and I finally both booted home winners. My more speculative bets were derailed by the Ravens last second field goal (forcing the Browns game to a push) and poor performances from the Dolphins (who I am not touching again this year) and the Panthers. It’s been a roller coaster ride through the first 3 rounds, and any punter who is making money on the NFL this year – we salute you. Just a reminder that you can see all of our bets and their success (and failure) on The Winners Circle tab above.
On to this week’s bets. It’s the first of the bye rounds, so perennial favourites Seattle, Denver and Cinci, along with Arizona, St Louis and Cleveland are all on the sidelines. On the field, there are some crucial match ups that should probably be avoided from a punting perspective – it’s a big week for the Packers (away to the Bears), 49ers (at home to the Eagles) and Cowboys (at home to the Saints). The least watchable game of the week would have to be Miami vs Oakland in London – for a league that is apparently trying to expand it’s international appeal, they sure know how to choose shitty games to export.
At the risk of being boring and predictable, I am going to stick with the Chargers again this week, who host the hapless Jags. They are giving away a 13 point start, but bear in mind the Jags have lost their first 3 by 17, 31 and 21 points. I really don’t think 13 points will be enough to help Jacksonville against a fired up Philip Rivers, even with Bortles now under centre. The Bolts back at home and riding high on wins over Seattle and Buffalo and with a very comfy schedule over the next few weeks will be looking to make a statement in the AFC West, particularly with Denver cooling its heels on the sideline.
The Chiefs get 3.5 at home to the Pats (who only just scraped home against Oakland FFS) and I think this will be enough for them at Arrowhead – punters agree, with the line into $1.87 with Centrebet.
In Thursday night football, I have a feeling the real Kirk Cousins is going to show himself (that’s a bad thing by the way), Eli is going to take control and the Giants with the points will get it done in a crucial NFC East match up in Washington.
And finally I am going to parlay up the four home teams who I think are locks this week;
So the bet is;
$60 Chargers – 13 ($1.91 vs Jags) to return $114.60
$20 Chiefs + 3.5 ($1.87 vs Pats) into Giants +3.5 (1.95 @ Washington) to return $73
$20 h2h Chargers ($1.12)/Colts ($1.30)/Steelers ($1.28)/Ravens ($1.57) to return $58.50
Gargy’s in Africa this weekend on a smurf chasing safari junket, so unless he finds a wifi connection, or a particularly robust carrier pigeon, I suspect he won’t have any bets for us this week.
In the meantime, here’s his impersonation of a lion who just licked a lemon.