Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 5

What a wonderful week!  Two winners last week for me, with only the Steelers, who rolled over and gave the game to the Buccs, upsetting what would have been a perfect triple return.  The Giants/Chiefs bet in particular is possibly the easiest 3/1 return you will see all year.  I am sure our 3 regular readers are stoked.

But we cannot dwell on our success – we need to find a few winners for this week;

No Sure Fire Winner this week (tempted to say the Saints, but that would mean I would have to have any faith in the Buccs to win back to back games, which I don’t)

There’s a nice early bet which I think will do us nicely this week.  Green Bay host the Vikings in Thursday night football, and as we have seen since the inception of Thursday night games, backing up to play Thursday after a Sunday game is a tough ask.   We’ve seen blowouts in the three Thursday games with teams backing up (I’m ignoring week 1 obviously), and with Rogers firing last week, the Pack at home and the Vikings likely without Bridgewater, who provided something of a spark to their stuttering offence last week, and still missing Peterson, it all adds up to a Packers shelacking.  At the same time, I think the Packers defence is porous enough to allow the Vikings a few scores to get our total up where we need it;

$90 on Green Bay -8.5/Total Score +47.5 @ 3.60 to return $324

In the other games that jump out at me, the Chargers are giving away less than a touchdown at home to the Jets – the Jets are great at stopping the run, but the Chargers don’t have much of a running game anyway, so I don’t think this will slow Rivers & Co down, providing they can sort out their diabolical mess at centre;

Legursky

You can’t do that man.  Chargers to cover here, Legursky notwithstanding.

The Titans host the Browns, who are coming off the bye.  Somehow the Titans are favourites, despite having not won since week 1 – their victory over the Chiefs was followed by heavy losses to the Cowboys, Bengals and Colts.  Now I realise the Browns are not quite at this level, but they are 1-2 and their two losses were by 3 and 2 points respectively, their most recent loss being to a Ravens field goal on full time, a game they should have locked up.  I think they are a better team than the Titans and the +1 @ 2.05 is generous.

The Bengals, currently the best team in football (arguably) face off against the worst team in football (arguably) in the Patriots. You can get $1.91 for the Bengals giving away a mere point and a half to the dismal Patriots.  Yes, the Pats are back home, but I don’t expect this will help them.  They are 2-2 for the season but even that is flattering, and anyone who thinks that Brady is capable of doing a Rogers and turning the team around on his own is overestimating both Tom and the talent around him – Bengals by more than a TD.

Finally, the Eagles face the Rams this week.  The Eagles scored 21 points against the 49ers last week, but exactly none of those points came from their offence.  They were all special teams.  And things don’t get any easier this week.  The Rams have their problems on offence but they are still a tough defence.  With the line at 47.5, this one screams UNDERS to me.

$10 Chargers -6.5 (1.87) into Rams/Eagles -47.5 (1.91) into Bengals -1.5 (1.91) into Browns +1 (2.05) to return $139

Happy punting!

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