Smart punters know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em, they know when to walk away and…you get the idea…anyway, last week had “danger” written all over it, hence I didn’t post any recommendations (also, I was drunk for 3 days). We are back on the horse this week though, and my tips will follow shortly. Before we get there, given we are 8 weeks into the season, I thought it was worth taking a look at some punting stats on the season to date, and in particular how the Underdogs are performing. All of this is largely irrelevant statistically because it is such a small sample size, but I spent the better part of a day working out how to do charts in excel, so deal with it. Let’s get right to it. All lines as per www.footballlocks.com as usual.
The Littlest Hobo
A nice easy one to start us off. Percentage of wins each week at the line to the Fav (red) and Underdog (blue). As you can see, the Dogs were red hot in week one, but Vegas and the Favs reasserted themselves steadily until week 5 when Underdog punters got destroyed. We’ve since reverted to a roughly 50/50 win ratio, which is what you would expect. Not sure there is much to be taken from this, other than if you took our advice and backed the underdogs early, you would have had plenty of money to lose come week 5…
Over The Top
Sticking with the simple theme, here’s the over/under results for the year to date.
Overs (in red) with a slight edge. Interestingly, I have the impression that the lines have been pretty woeful from Vegas, and that seems to be supported by the data. I’m no statistical expert, so I probably haven’t found the best way to express this, but here is the average of how many points off the actual score the over/under lines have been week to week (blue line) as well as the standard deviation (what ever that is);
What does this tell us? Not much unfortunately, other than if you pick the right way to go, you are unlikely to be sweating too much on the result. This is further supported by the fact that, of the 106 games played so far this year, only 9 have finished with a result within a point (or less) of the Vegas over/under line.
Home is where the heart is
Home teams had a rough start to the year (which lines up with the strength of the underdogs in week 1) but they have since reasserted their dominance (other than week 6, where only the Browns, Cardinals, Eagles and Titans managed home wins). The lesson here is, if you are backing a team head to head, make sure they are at home.
Stay tuned for next week when when I will be doing a team by team breakdown of who is the most reliable to back at the line (hint – it’s not the Raiders, Jets, Jags or Titans).