Well, our punting might be terrible, but I can still keep posting data here from which we can at least kid ourselves that we might be losing, but we’re losing scientifically godamnit.
First off, our trusty Underdog and Unders/Overs analysis.
Of note this week (other than the fact I didn’t bother calculating how far off the over/under lines were) was a 50/50 fav/dog split at the line, and a few unexpected over/under results, with both the Pats v Pack and Cowboys v Eagles going under, while Giants v Jags and Ravens v Chargers turned into kind of shootouts and went overs. The Home teams were also impressive, particularly at the line – of the 5 home dogs this week, an impressive 4 managed to cover, with only the Chiefs letting the side down.
This result brought the Chiefs back to the pack in terms of their success against the spread, with the Cardinals loss also knocking them down a few notches. The Colts remain a good bet at the line, which I suspect is due to their ability to cover against garbage rather than compete outright against the good teams, while surprisingly the Vikings appear sneaky good on this measure with an 8-4 record against the spread.
Finally a pie chart (hmmm, pie) on Performing Dogs. This is a chart splitting the dogs who have won at the line this year (there have been 94 of them from 192 games for a slightly less than 50% overall performance) into those that won at the line, but lost outright, and those that managed to get the outright win to go with their victory at the line.
This chart tells us what we here at Pelican Punting have been saying all year – if you like a dog, take him head to head and enjoy the extra value. I haven’t done the maths on the prices, but from the chart above, taking a dog you like for the outright win is a much more lucrative strategy than taking the safety of the points.