Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 10

Well, Gargamel has finally returned from his mysterious juice cleanse getaway (the less said about where the juice goes, the better) and has posted a few bets for our loyal followers.  I’ve got to say, but for the weird innuendo regarding Michael Vick, I like the song he is singing.  There are lots of reasons that the Jets SHOULD lift this week – coach and QB under pressure to keep their jobs (although who they go to after Vick is anyone’s guess), a notoriously fickle fan base that may just give up all together and defect en masse to the Toronto Argonauts if they don’t see some improvement, a Steelers D that is looking pretty banged up, and a home field advantage.  But then again, they are the Jets, so the Steelers -4 seems a reasonable bet.  Unfortunately, Gargy didn’t tell us how much he was having on the Steelers, or on the Titans with their +10, but I do like that he has adopted Zack Mettenberger as his own and thinks he can get the job done.

Me, I am a simpler man.  If I’d been more efficient, I would have written this a couple of days ago when I was telling anyone who would listen that Andy Dalton was on a downward trajectory and to get on the Browns.  What I didn’t predict was that he would reach terminal velocity in Thursday Night’s game and turn in one of the all time worst QB performances of the modern era.  Now, I feel for Andy – he is a fellow Ginger who has had to overcome that stigma to succeed as a professional sportsman, but man did he ever give the Fanta Pants Brigade a bad name on Thursday night.  Horrible.  Bengals are a no bet for the rest of the year, in case there was any doubt. For those who didn’t see the game, check out the ~2 minutes of QB Incompletion Ballet thanks to the folks at SB Nation here.  It is mesmerizing in its awfulness.

My bets for this week then;

I really like the way the Saints looked against the Packers two weeks ago, and whilst they were serviceable if not devastating against the Panthers last week, bear in mind that this was the first road game they’d managed to win all year.  They now kick off a 3 game home stretch against a struggling 9ers team that is playing on the proverbial one leg.  Jimmy Graham is going to have a field day and the Saints win.  They are $1.38 for the win.

The Packers also look like locks at home to the Bears.  I know Gargy has a theory that you try and avoid Division games, but then he has gone and taken Denver at $1.17 so he can shove it.  The Bears have been struggling and I think Rogers will take them apart after having a week to rest up.  $1.31 for the win there.

The Cardinals are at home to the Rams, and whilst the Rams beat the 49ers last week, I could make a really good case that the 49ers beat themselves.  So I am really throwing the division rivalry no bet theory to the dogs and will be rolling in the Cardinals to win at $1.34.

Those three together for $100 will get us a return of $234.  That’ll do nicely.

I think the Jags have a great chance to notch up a win in London against the struggling Cowboys, their home away from home, and the punters agree with me – the money has come at the line, with the +7.5 into $1.79.  Personally, I am not going to jump on as I have missed the boat, but if you like them, I would not discourage you.  I also think the resurgent Dolphins are a big chance in Detroit.

PELICAN PUNTING GOES EARBORNE

Finally, as Gargy mentioned, we have indeed completed our first ever Pelican Punting Podcast (PPP1 for those who like an acronym).  It’ll be up just as soon as I work out how to edit it, turn it into an MP3, and post it somewhere accessible to our dear readers.

In the meantime, here is a clip of animals doing shit that humans do;

Shirt.

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NFC North – Division Preview

NFC North Winner  (Over/Under season wins).
Odds as per Centrebet @ 24 August

Green Bay $1.70 (10.5 games – Over $1.74/Under $2.10)

Chicago Bears $4.00 (8.5 games – Over $1.67/Under $2.20)

Detroit Lions $4.25 (8.5 games – Under $1.74/Over $2.10)

Minnesota Vikings $20 (6 games – Over $1.71/Under $2.15)

Gargy: Green Bay are favourites for the division because they have the best QB in the division, and so if you are a favourite backer and if you think Aaron Rodgers stays healthy all year- get a piece of the $1.70 on offer. If you like value, think Rodgers will go down injured again or actually believe the Bears defence has improved enough to challenge for the division, get amongst the $4.00.  As for the Lions, I just can’t see them turning it around this year, and the Vikings are in for a tough season.  I see it as a two horse race. The Bears offence is great; they have two sensational receivers in Marshall and Jeffrey, and say what you want about Cutler but he can get it done. Matt Forte is good and Bennett at TE is an excellent target.  They made a big effort in the off season redoing their defence and signed Lamarr Houston, Willie Young and Jared Allen to be in their defensive line. They cannot win the SB, but they can win the Division.  I will also be backing them to go over the 8.5 win mark.

The Packers have focused on defence in the off season and with their #1 pick selected banger Ha Ha Clinton Dix at Safety, as well as signing Julius Peppers in free agency. As I said earlier, Rodgers is awesome and he alone can lead the Packers to the Division title.

Shirt hates the Lions and thinks they are massive under achievers and I too cannot back them – although their talent is ridiculous; To the prodigious Stafford and Megatron they have added Golden Tate, picked up Reggie Bush, and have the likes of Fairley, Suh etc.. The NFC North in my opinion has a very tough schedule, crossing with the AFC East, who could be anything, and the NFC South- who I think will be the toughest division to predict the winner of. My advice – don’t bet on anything to do with the Lions this year, and I will follow my own advice.

Finally the Vikings; they will be hopeless.  I predict Bridgewater will be a bust at QB and they will be looking for a QB in the 2015 draft.  Get on the  unders at a juicy $2.15. I am going to take the easy option and take Green Bay to win the division, Shirty give me your insight champion, who wins the division, who goes over, who goes under?

Shirt: Always a tough division with quality at the top in the form of Green Bay, the upside down Bears, the unpredictable Lions and the what the fuck do you with the Vikings.  I don’t share Gargy’s enthusiasm for the AFC East – I think the Pats will see some improvement on defence (they can’t get much worse) but I don’t see the others being particularly problematic.

For me, the Packers season is all about their first 5 weeks.  They start with a tough match against the Super Bowl champs in Seattle, then host the Jets who will be looking to fire early, before away games against the Bears and Lions, rounding out with a home game to the Vikings.  So by week 5, we should have a really good handle on whether they are going to dominate their division.  But I am not paid to quote the schedule.  Let’s say the drop the game to the Hawks in a close one in week one, flog the Jets at home, out duel the Lions, give up a narrow loss to the Bears and pump the hapless Vikings.  That has them 3-2 in the opening stretch.  Their only really tough away game outside the Division will be to the Saints, which they may drop, but otherwise they are away to the Dolphins, Buccs & Bills – all very winnable.  Meanwhile they get the Pats, Falcons and Panthers (who will be hopeless this year) at home, so you’d think they have to win 2/3 of those.  Even if they drop a couple of games to the Bears and Lions and go 4-2 in their division, they still end up 11-5.   Overs is the right bet, as is the $1.70 for division winner.

The Bears under their new coach Marc Trestman have cast of their previous reputation as defensive stalwarts which they enjoyed under Lovie Smith and have instead become hopeless on the defensive side of the ball – I am talking 30th in the league hopeless.  On the plus side, their offense opened up last year and they were actually pretty fun to watch.  We have gone through the looking glass people.  Despite Gargy’s astute observations on their vaunted new defence, it has done bugger all in the preseason so far.  And they will be sorely tested – away to the 49ers, Jets, Falcons, Panthers and Pats (could go 0-5 but I will give them 2-3) and at home to the Bills, Dolphins, Buccs, Cowboys and Saints (3-2 at best).  So they are every chance to pick up 5 wins or less outside the division, meaning they have to go 4-2 against divisional rivals on a best case.  Possible, but I am going to go out on a limb and say get on the Unders people.  $2.20 is a gift.

I’ve had my share of frustrations with the Lions, and Gargy is right to point out that their underachieving nature frustrates me.  This is not going to be the year that I predict they will correct that – I have done it before and been burned…but…last year they were 7-5 after 13 rounds coming off a big win against the Packers into a very winnable final stretch – the Eagles, Ravens, Giants and Vikings.  Somehow they managed to lose all of them and go out the back door in divisional calculations.  So the question is, is Matt Stafford capable of getting it done when it matters.  Buggered if I know, but he is not getting any more of my money to find out. By all means, get on the overs, but know that in doing so you are putting your testicles in a vice and giving this guy permission to turn the handle;

Matthew+Stafford+2012+ESPY+Awards+Press+Room+0ImG4yzhexDl

And that brings us to the Vikings.  Rookie coach, Rookie QB, a schedule that reads Rams (away), Pats (home), Saints (away), Falcons (home), Packers (away), Lions (home).  And that’s just the first 6 weeks.  They are going to be 0-6 and a bit short on confidence come round 7 you’d reckon.  Unders is looking like a decent bet.  And if you’re a Viking fan, my guess is that after those first 6 games you might be turning off the football, sitting in a darkened room away from any sharp objects, and listening to a bit of this;

Thursday Night Fever – Week #8

Roger Goodall, you are sorely testing my patience.  Why in the name of everything holy would you choose to make Carolina @ Tampa Bay the Thursday Night Football game?  Are you mocking me, is that it Goodall, you SOB.  I will mess you up, don’t think I won’t you smug, square headed, sandy haired freak.  I don’t care that you bear a passing resemblance to one of my favourite wrestlers of all time, Rowdy Roddy Piper [don’t expect a picture – do some of your own google work people]

What am I to do with this travesty – a team that hasn’t been above .500 in 5 years (that’s right, not never finished the season – never even had it on their record) up against a team that is 0-6 for the year and is starting a pin headed ginger at QB.

I had intended to do a quick summary of all the things on TV that you could watch instead of this game, but, on top of having to write this post, the internet appears to have frozen on my computer.   Happy Friday!  I blame you Roger.

$50 on Panthers win, game score under 40.5 @2.55.  Let’s get this over with.

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL, TNF

Thursday Night Football – Week #7

We’re in a bit of a mid season slump here at PP.  Last week Gargs inexplicably backed the Texans, a bet which got what it deserved when they were comprehensively trounced by the Rams.  Meanwhile, I was doing the winners dance* thinking the Saints were home (+1.5) until Tom Fucking Brady led an absolutely ridiculous 80+ yards in under 2 mins with no timeouts, and threw a TD on the last play.  What a douche.

My previous Thursday Night heroics are a distant memory and you’re only as good as your last win, so I will be looking to get back on track this week.  I was amazed to see Seattle giving away less than a TD to Arizona.  I know they’ve been better than I thought they would be, but damn it, I will not stand for any suggestion that they will get within 1 TD of the Seahawks, home or not, particularly with Richard Sherman picking off Carson Palmer at will.  However, acknowledging that Arizona are…not the worst team in the league…I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they may score a few points.

Unfortunately I’m having trouble accessing centrebet on my phone as I type this**, but I noticed the over/under line was at 40 and the score line at 6.5. So we are going Seattle -6.5 /  Over 40.  $50 on that at whatever the price is – expect it will be 3.60 or so.  Go Hawks!

Shirt

* is that something everyone does when they have a win – the little “doo doo doo” shuffle that says “winner” to anyone inclined to be looking

** which is wierd, because I would expect the betting rush to come AFTER I’d published my tip…

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL, TNF