2015 NFL Mock Draft

It is time of the year where I do my annual NFL Mock draft, therefore here it is- Gargy’s 2015 NFl Mock Draft with some notes and my expert analysis.

1. Tampa Bay Bucs- Jameis Winston. The Bucs have so many holes however everyone knows you need a great Qb to win the superbowl. He goes first, if you can find a market to bet on it- Get on!

2. TRADE… San Diego Chargers. Marcus Mariota. The Titans have the Chargers, Browns, Eagles, probably Bears and even Rams calling them trying to do a trade and so they can pick and choose what suits them best and I think taking Rivers plus a couple of picks makes them an instant contender in the AFC, as the AFC South isn’t that great. The Chargers on the other hand must be petrified that Rivers could play out the season and walk away leaving them with a massive hole-I feel they pull the trigger now, chuck in a few late trades and its on!!!

3. Jacksonville Jaguars. Leonard Williams. Some suggest he could go #1, he is a big human and good pass rushers are hard to find, this guy is great.

4. Kevin White or Amari Cooper. Oakland Raiders. I know what a p*ssy not making a call!! But I honestly don’t know which way they jump. I think the jury is still out on Carr, but he needs some targets, If you get him a good rookie WR in the draft, coupled with Crabtree who they got as a free agent- he will have targets and they will therefore know if they have their QB or not. Both receivers are good, if pushed I think they go with Cooper, Although I think longer term White has more upside.

5. TRADE…. New Orleans Saints. Dante Fowler. The Saints have two first round picks and could almost start anywhere, but they need help with pass rush and therefore go up and get a guy they really like and chuck in a few mid rounders to the Redskins to sweaten the deal. The Redskins love the additional pick(s) as they are still paying the price for going up and getting RG3 a few years back. Saints overhaul tarts this year and they start with defence.

6. NY Jets. Shane Rey. New Head coach Todd Bowles will go defense in the front 7.

7. Chicago Bears. Whoever doesn’t go with White or Cooper. So more than likely Kevin White. They are short at WR after they traded Marshall to the NY Jets.

8. Atlanta Falcons. Bud Dupree. They need a pass rusher badly, well they need a few positions actually, but this will be the start.

9. NY Giants. Brandon Scherff. After hitting the jackpot with OBJ last year, this year they need someone to keep Manning safe, hence going with the O Line.

10. St Louis Rams. Ereck Flowers. I think they need help with the O Line. And so for the second year in a row go an OL in the 1st round.

11. Minasota Vikings. We have another TRADE.. Todd Gurley gets selected as the first RB taken in the 2015 draft. He is drafted because AP has been sent to Arizona for this year and next years 1st rounders. To be honest its best for everyone, AP gets a fresh start, Arizona get a RB which they really badly need and the Vikings get a stud RB plus an extra pick.

12. Cleveland Browns. DBG. The Browns struck out last year with Jonny football * that other CB (name eludes me) and I reckon they push their luck with DBG. If he stays out of trouble could be a stud, however he has a chequered past and it is a Browns thing to do to take such a risk.

13. Redskins Trae Waynes. The Redskins secondary was bad last year, Waynes is the #1 rates CB and he helps them.

14. Dolphins. Devante Parker. This was a tough one, as with addition of Suh they will be a lot stronger, but they could add a good WR.

15. San Francisco 49 ers. Kevin Johnson. The 49 ers lost two starting CB’s and will take the next best CB on the board

16. Houston Texans. Nelson Agholor. After seeing Johnson walk away from the Texans after 12 years they need a WR to fill that spot.

17. Tennesse Titans. Andrus Peat. The Titans have a stack of holes, but now with a new QB (Phil Rivers), the first thing they need to do is protect him and therefore the first pick is the best available OL player.

18. KC Chiefs. Vic Beasley. The have Justin Houstan on the Franchise Tag but keeping him long term will cost a boat load of money and cost players, Beasley will fill in really nicely and the Chiefs will feel it is a steal to see Beasley available at 18.

19. Lael Collins. Browns Again. Seriously who knows with the Browns. A solid DT or Lineman would help solidify the line and Collins is well rated

20. Philadelphia Eagles. TJ Clemmings, Pitt. The Eagles have a few holes in the secondardy, Outside LB and WR but given they have acquired Murray and Mathews- Philly will want to run the ball, and in order to run the ball you must have a good O Line.

21. Cincinati Bengals, Landon Collins. The Bengals have drafted a fair few players from Alabama in recent years, Collins is another

22. Pittsburg Steelers, Byron Jones U Conn. Ike Taylor and Troy Polomalo are gone and therefore they need a CB, this guys stats are off the charts, his vertical jump saw him jump close to 15 feet.

23. Detroit Lions, Danny Shelton, Huge body- check out how chunky his legs are,!! But seriously they need beef up front after losing fairly and Suh, even thought they picked up Ngata

24. Minasota Vikings, After trading away AP they get another pick and they go O Line with Jake Fischer from Oregon

25. Carolina Panthers, Erik Armstrong- don’t know anything about him but he is high on most boards

26. Baltimore Ravens, Benji Marshall, I am just checking to see is people are still reading

27. Dallas Cowboys, Marcus Peters CB. They picked up wife basher Greg Hardy, and they have Josh Brent on the roster and he killed a team mate due to drinking driving, so the fact Peters choked his coach is no worries at all. Jerry Jones is all about winning- character concerns are not his concern.

28. Denver Broncos Max Williams, They lost their #1 TE in free agency and this is surely Mannings last chance isn’t it? So they give him another due to chuck it to.

29. Indy Colts. Phillip Dorsett, Another WR and this dude is fast, really fast. Will help provide better balance with the receiving corps

30. Green Bay Packers. Malcolm Brown, the packers are so good in attack, they need to improve their defence and a big DT will help

31. New Orleans (from Seattle thanks to Jimmy Graham trade) DJ Humpries, They need to rebuild the O line.

32. Trade. I don’t know who comes up, but New England always trade out of the 1st round and pick up a few extra picks.

So there it is, let me know what you think.

Gargy

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Pelican Punting Podcast – SuperBowl Special

Gargy is in hospital, but do you think that is going to stop us doing a podcast for the Superbowl?  Not on your life!  Featuring a special guest appearance from the Puppetmaster, live from the course at the Waste Management Phoenix Open as he gears up for a trip to University of Phoenix stadium tomorrow for the big game.

Stream the podcast by clicking here.

Conference Championship Games – Shirty’s Preview

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a winner!  Those of you paying attention would have noticed a fantastic return to form for your’s truly last week, when my podcast tip of Packers/Patriots/Colts +10.5 romped home…Ok, so only the Colts leg “romped” while the Packers “limped” and the Patriots “squeeked” home, but screw you, a wins a win and I am BACK baby!

Unfortunately, Gargy and I have not been able to get our respective houses in order to put on a podcast this week (it’s my fault to be frank – Gargy is chomping at the bit) but we will be back with a year in review show and a Superbowl preview in the days leading up to the big game.  We won’t be covering the pro-bowl, because, well, it’s not real football anyway (standard advice applies to the game – bet the overs).

But before we get to the Big Show, we have the conference round to get through, with a resurgent Seattle playing host to the Packers and the Patriots hosting the upstart Colts.  On paper, this looks like a Seattle v Patriots superbowl waiting to happen, and the bookies agree;

Head to Head:
Green Bay $3.75 v Seattle $1.29
Indy $3.22 v Patriots $1.37

Line:
Green Bay (+7.5) $1.94 v Seattle (-7.5) $1.90
Indy (+6.5) $1.95 v Patriots (-6.5) $1.89

Over/Under
GB/Seattle: 46 Points $1.92 each of two
Indy/Pats: Over 53.5 $1.90 / Under 53.5 $1.94

So here’s what I am thinking.  I think we can agree we have the 4 best teams playing off for the conference titles.  The only major upset of the playoffs, I would argue, was Indy knocking off Denver, but in hindsight, the way Manning was (not) playing, maybe that wasn’t such a big upset after all.  Now, I’ve been harping on about the Dogs all year, and I will be posting a column next week to review their overall performance over the course of the year, but why wouldn’t we latch on to the best Dogs of the year here? Yes they are away, and yes, particularly GB has it’s issues with Rogers carrying a niggle, but these teams have been good enough to get here, have QB’s that we know can get the job done, and are getting some serious points in the bargain.

So punters, get on the Dogs, and ride them all the way to the Big Show:

$100 Green Bay +7.5 @ $1.94 – $194
$100 Colts +6.5 @ $1.95 – $195
$50 Colts +6.5 into Green Bay +7.5 @ $3.78 – $189
$20 Colts (win) into Green Bay (win) @ $12.08 – $241.60

Come on you dogs, carry us home!

Now, haters gonna say that the only thing more ridiculous than these bets is this video clip;

But you know what, haters gonna hate.  Tell ’em Taylor;

Happy Punting!

Shirt

Pelican Punting Podcast – End of 2014 Edition

Sitting at home alone with nothing to do on New Year’s Eve?  Convinced yourself that NYE is “massively overrated” and you are better off “avoiding the hassle”?  Decided that if you’ve seen one firework you’ve seen them all (but perhaps still made an effort to go out and watch the local ones at 9pm, and will almost certainly turn on the coverage on TV at midnight)?

Well, what better way to farewell 2014 and with it, the NFL regular season, and welcome in the New Year and the Playoffs, than by listening to Gargy and Shirt talk for half an hour!  And while 2014 slips away, you can lie back and think about all of the things you failed to do last year but that you will definitely get on to in 2015, like getting your podcast up on iTunes…

Happy New Year folks!  Stay safe, and stay tuned for more Pelican Punting goodness as we navigate our way towards the Superbowl over the coming weeks.

Listen to the Podcast by clicking this link.

Shirty

Pelican Punting Podcast – Christmas Edition

Pelican Punting Podcast, Christmas Edition, wherein Gargy and I record a podcast after both consuming a tad too much Christmas cheer.  The result – thankfully not as diabolical as Gargy’s last plane trip.  Click the Podcast link below to get streaming;

Podcast

Merry Christmas all – enjoy the NFL Smorgasboard over the Christmas period – we’ll be back soon to talk you through the playoffs, as we chase our lost fortune after a pretty average season of punting.

Pelican Punting Podcast Episode 5 is Live

After an unscheduled break last week, we are back to deliver NFL goodness direct to your vestibulocochlear nerve.  This week’s show includes our pick for the HK International Race Day (Able Friend in the Mile) and our tips for the week (use the PYOL option and take a multi of Raiders +14.5, Texans +10.5, Packers to win for a juicy return of $3.13).  And with that info conveyed here, now you don’t technically need to listen…but do anyway, it’s great.

Pelican Punting Podcast – Episode 5

Reservoir Dogs

Well, our punting might be terrible, but I can still keep posting data here from which we can at least kid ourselves that we might be losing, but we’re losing scientifically godamnit.

First off, our trusty Underdog and Unders/Overs analysis.

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Of note this week (other than the fact I didn’t bother calculating how far off the over/under lines were) was a 50/50 fav/dog split at the line, and a few unexpected over/under results, with both the Pats v Pack and Cowboys v Eagles going under, while Giants v Jags and Ravens v Chargers turned into kind of shootouts and went overs.  The Home teams were also impressive, particularly at the line – of the 5 home dogs this week, an impressive 4 managed to cover, with only the Chiefs letting the side down.

This result brought the Chiefs back to the pack in terms of their success against the spread, with the Cardinals loss also knocking them down a few notches.  The Colts remain a good bet at the line, which I suspect is due to their ability to cover against garbage rather than compete outright against the good teams, while surprisingly the Vikings appear sneaky good on this measure with an 8-4 record against the spread.

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Finally a pie chart (hmmm, pie) on Performing Dogs.  This is a chart splitting the dogs who have won at the line this year (there have been 94 of them from 192 games for a slightly less than 50% overall performance) into those that won at the line, but lost outright, and those that managed to get the outright win to go with their victory at the line.

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This chart tells us what we here at Pelican Punting have been saying all year – if you like a dog, take him head to head and enjoy the extra value.  I haven’t done the maths on the prices, but from the chart above, taking a dog you like for the outright win is a much more lucrative strategy than taking the safety of the points.

Shirt

Monday Night’s A Great Night for Football

Tuesday Lunch time for us Aussie’s is slightly less ideal, but I will give you the tip folks.  If you are a Foxtel subscriber and you have a smartphone, download Foxtel Go, connect yourself to the nearest Wifi hotspot, and you can live stream Thursday, Sunday and Monday Night Football AND NFL Redzone.  It’s a wonderful little distraction from the drudgery of the ordinary working day.

Interesting match up this week, with the Nothing to Play for Other than an Early Draft Pick to Get A Decent QB Jets up against the Miami Dolphins, who realistically must win this game to have a realistic chance of staying in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.  This one is in New York, but the Jets have a notoriously fickle fan base and the Fins travel well, so I don’t expect that to be a problem.  My main issue here is really what to do with the over/under.  My gut says this is a game the Dolphins win on defence, and we’ll be in for a 24-13 sort of game, in which case the Fins -6.5/Under 41.5 @ $3.14 should be a no brainer.  But can’t you just see Tannehill clicking here and putting up a big score?  I’m torn so I have gone for an alternate double market on Sportsbet of -4.5, Under 49.5.  I suggest Pelican Punters get on board;

$100 on Dolphins -4.5, Total Score Under 49.5 to return $200.

It’s been a rough couple of weeks.  I need this.

Shirty

Best in Show

The dogs keep marching on.  The round started with a strong dogs victory, when the Raiders managed their first win of the season, ruining my Thursday Night Football bet in the process.  They then consolidated over the weekend, going 9 and 15 at the line, with 4 outright victories, and it probably should have been worse for the favs with the Chargers and Broncos particularly lucky to get home.  Regular listeners would have noticed that the dogs covered in our two no touchy games (Dolphins v Broncos & Saints v Ravens) while my bet of the week, Pats -7 against the Lions, was one of the few favs that got home comfortably.  Let’s not speak about the Cardinals…

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In terms of reliable teams at the line, our top couple of coverers in the Chiefs and Cardinals both had a dent to their reputations this week, but the Browns and Colts were both solid.  I suspect the Chiefs, currently 1 point underdogs at Denver, might take another hit this week, while the Cardinals are 2.5 point favs at Atlanta and look a decent chance to spring back.

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Happy Punting!

Shirt

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 12 TNF Edition

The great modern day philosophers Chumbawumba once said “I get knocked down, but I get up again, you never going to keep me down” and I think there is an important life lesson there for all of us.  Admittedly, they then went on to a verse about excessive alcohol consumption, pissing the night away, and ending the night in a drunken stupor singing Danny Boy, which frankly was a bit too close to a description of my life at the time for comfort.

Nevertheless, despite the hiccup last week with the Bills v Dolphins prediction, we are presented with another prime opportunity to make money on a Thursday night, and despite getting knocked down last week, it’s time to get back up again.

Going back to our stats that have been covered in the Dogs columns, we have strong indicators of an Unders game (Chiefs have gone under the line 3/10, Raiders 5/10).  The Thursday night game was proving to be a blow out game early in the season, but the last few weeks have been low scoring contests, with a reasonably convincing winner emerging in an otherwise tight game.  Let’s have a look at the performance of these two teams against the spread;

Raiders

Record head to head: 0-10

Record at the line: 4-6.  Covered against the Chargers (+10.5 week 11), Seahawks (+13.5 week 9), Chargers (+7.5 week 6), Jets (+6.5 week 1)

Interestingly for the Raiders, they have started as Underdogs in every game this year with the +3 points they received against the Texans in week 2 the most respect they have been afforded by the bookies all year.

Chiefs

Record head to head: 7-3

Record at the line: 9-1.  Only failed to win at the line once all season when they were upset by the Titans in week 1.  Just let that sink in folks.  After dropping a home game to the Titans in round, they covered in the next 9 (incl a push against the niners) and of those, three have been as favourite. They have also managed a 7-2 record since that first loss, with their only losses coming to the Broncos and Niners on the road.

Make no mistake, they are a good football team.

The Chiefs are building nicely towards the playoffs, and have a real chance to unseat the Broncos, who are looking a tad shaky, at the top of the division if they can keep the run going.  I can’t see Andy Reid letting some rookie coach get the better of him – Chiefs will get it done.

The Bet

The obvious bet here is just to take the Chiefs -6.5 and the Unders 43.5 Double.  You can do so with Sportsbet and get $2.97.  But there are some other interesting alternate lines on there; Chiefs to Win/Under 35.5 ($3.60) if you think it will be an arm wrestle, or if you like the Chiefs to win comfortably, Chiefs -8.5, Under 51.5 is paying $2.56.

Personally I am going to stick solid with the basic line and have a $100 to return $297.  Chiefs to get it done 24-10.

There’s also a nice little prop bet in this game too – take the greatest running back in football at the moment, Jamaal Charles, for over 104.5 Total Yards @ $1.87.  He will get undoubtedly get knocked down but he will most certainly get back up again.

Happy punting!

Shirty.