The great modern day philosophers Chumbawumba once said “I get knocked down, but I get up again, you never going to keep me down” and I think there is an important life lesson there for all of us. Admittedly, they then went on to a verse about excessive alcohol consumption, pissing the night away, and ending the night in a drunken stupor singing Danny Boy, which frankly was a bit too close to a description of my life at the time for comfort.
Nevertheless, despite the hiccup last week with the Bills v Dolphins prediction, we are presented with another prime opportunity to make money on a Thursday night, and despite getting knocked down last week, it’s time to get back up again.
Going back to our stats that have been covered in the Dogs columns, we have strong indicators of an Unders game (Chiefs have gone under the line 3/10, Raiders 5/10). The Thursday night game was proving to be a blow out game early in the season, but the last few weeks have been low scoring contests, with a reasonably convincing winner emerging in an otherwise tight game. Let’s have a look at the performance of these two teams against the spread;
Record head to head: 0-10
Record at the line: 4-6. Covered against the Chargers (+10.5 week 11), Seahawks (+13.5 week 9), Chargers (+7.5 week 6), Jets (+6.5 week 1)
Interestingly for the Raiders, they have started as Underdogs in every game this year with the +3 points they received against the Texans in week 2 the most respect they have been afforded by the bookies all year.
Record head to head: 7-3
Record at the line: 9-1. Only failed to win at the line once all season when they were upset by the Titans in week 1. Just let that sink in folks. After dropping a home game to the Titans in round, they covered in the next 9 (incl a push against the niners) and of those, three have been as favourite. They have also managed a 7-2 record since that first loss, with their only losses coming to the Broncos and Niners on the road.
Make no mistake, they are a good football team.
The Chiefs are building nicely towards the playoffs, and have a real chance to unseat the Broncos, who are looking a tad shaky, at the top of the division if they can keep the run going. I can’t see Andy Reid letting some rookie coach get the better of him – Chiefs will get it done.
The obvious bet here is just to take the Chiefs -6.5 and the Unders 43.5 Double. You can do so with Sportsbet and get $2.97. But there are some other interesting alternate lines on there; Chiefs to Win/Under 35.5 ($3.60) if you think it will be an arm wrestle, or if you like the Chiefs to win comfortably, Chiefs -8.5, Under 51.5 is paying $2.56.
Personally I am going to stick solid with the basic line and have a $100 to return $297. Chiefs to get it done 24-10.
There’s also a nice little prop bet in this game too – take the greatest running back in football at the moment, Jamaal Charles, for over 104.5 Total Yards @ $1.87. He will get undoubtedly get knocked down but he will most certainly get back up again.