NFL Division Games- Gargy’s preview

Here we go guys, four great games spread over two days. If anyone thinks they can multi up the 4 home team favourites this weekend- ensure you are it with someone else’s money, there are four great games this weekend but I smell an upset, here I will go through the games so we can make a bit of coin.

Ravens $3.50 at Pats $1.34 (- 7)

Over/Under is 47.5

A great game to start the weekend. A lot of people will say the Ravens match up well with the Pats and even have the wood on the Pats as they have won two of their past 3 games, however newsflash people- games in 2009 when the Ravens had Reed, Rice, Lewis do not count as it was freaking 2009, 5 years ago! This game is won and lost on how well the Pats O-line protects the golden boy Brady and how Suggs, Dhumerval et al pressure Brady. If they get pressure on him they will go a long way to protecting their ordinary secondary and ultimately winning the game. If Brady has time I don’t think there is a better passer of under 15 yards. He threads the needle every time. I think it will be close. I like Flacco as he has the ability to make big plays in big games, Steve Smith is a beast and is always hard to handle and I don’t think there is a better kick off returned than Jacoby Jones. For the pats apart from the no name O-line, it’s the Tom and Gronk show. There is no other player who can determine results like the Gronk. I have got the Pats winning and the game will be unders.

Panthers $5 at Seahawks $1.19 (-10.5)

Over/Under line is 38.5

$1.19 is a horrible price but I just cannot see the panthers winning, I cant. The panthers have great defence and have won 5 games in a row and winning form is good form, but who have they beaten? Last week they beat the Cardinals who put up a massive 78 yards of offence all game, before that wins over the Saints, Bucs, Browns and other cellar dwellers. I know you can only beat what is in front of you, but those teams are bad teams and so don’t be fooled into thinking the Panthers are on a roll. The panthers will have main objective- to Stop Marshawn Lynch from running, the Seahawks offence isn’t as good as last year when they won the superbowl however I would argue that Russell Wilson is playing at a higher level. The Panthers might keep it close for the first two or three quarters, but I feel they get run over the top of. I think Newton will be pressured and will make a HUGE mistake in the 3rd quarter. The Seahawks cover and it goes overs

Dallas $3.20 at Green Bay $1.37 (-5.5)

Over/Under 52

The line opened at 7.5 and is into -5.5 and this is a game where I could potentially see an upset. The Cowboys game plan surely has to be keep Rodgers on the sideline for as long as possible, control the game, dominate the time in possession to protect the defence to keep them away from Rodgers as long as possible. Use Murray as much as possible and don’t allow Romo to throw the ball more than say 25-30 times, it sounds great in theory. Being an Eagles fan I dislike the Cowboys, but there is something different about them this year, Romo doesn’t look like he is going to have a meltdown like he has so many time in the past in December- they seem to know what their game plan is and they don’t change from it. Murray is great whitten is good, Dez is just about the best WR in the game and their defence is actually playing ok. I thought when Lee went down in the off-season they would have the worst defence in the NFL, its no where near the best, but it is a long way from being the worst- can the secondary contain Rodgers? Can they come up with 1 or two really big plays to create a turnover ? I think this will be a really entertaining match. I have it going over and I keep flip-flopping, I think Green bay covers, but that could change tomorrow

Colts $3.47 at Broncos$1.34 (-7)

Over/Under 54

I think another game which has the potential for an upset. Manning is great, he is going to the hall of fame but for me I have this doubt about him. His play for the last 4-6 weeks hasn’t been as good as it was at the start of the year, CJ Anderson has come from no where and is killing it, the Thomas’ are going great and their defence is good. They deserve to be favourites but Indy are dangerous. Name your cliché… they are up against Andrew luck who is the best young QB in the game, Indy have a terrible running game but good receivers, its their defence and mainly their secondary which will determine if they can spring the upset.

I think the line of 54 is too high and I think the Colts win which will determine who wins this game.

So there it is- pick which games you like and mesh them together. You cannot have the teams head to head, you need to include a line bet or two and or under/overs lines. My main bet will be Seattle -10.5/overs into Pats winning at $4.10.

 

Good luck

Gargy

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NFL Week 6- Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football- Week 6

(Colts $1.77, Chargers $2.10, (+2 $1.91) Over/Under 49.5)

 

Gargy- Righto folks, stick with us- the weekend was an absolute wipeout with the shithouse Texans crushing my main bet, plus the Pelicans weekly multi, while my good mate Shirt paid the price for betting against Tom Brady,  so MNF sees the Colts head west to the Chargers.

I think the match will be close as I feel the Colts will have one eye on next weeks game when Peyton returns home for the first time and the Chargers will lift for the big national game, plus it will be a low scoring affair. Shirty’s boy Phillip Rivers has been pretty good this year and whilst he was ordinary against Oakland last week, if you wipe that game- his season has been good and he has put up great numbers. Luck has showed why he was #1 in the draft two years back, beating the Seahawks last week- he has a nice group of receivers to throw to, Richardson to pound the ground game and their defence is solid. Therefore I am taking the Colts win/Under 49.5 @$3.65 x $40.

NFL Rewind- Week 5

Week 5 what we learned

Gargy– Sorry folks, no MNF preview but I think we saved some cash, as I would have had the Falcons beating the Jets. I watched a fair bit of the game and say what you want about Rex Ryan and the Jets; but their defence was excellent, especially their ability to stop the run.  Geno was great- so give it up for the NY Jets.

Gargy- Can anyone name 2 more disappointing teams thus far than the Texans and Falcons.? The Falcons are now 4 wins behind division rivals the Saints and don’t look anything like the team from season 2012. Matt Ryan still looks great, however he has really only has 1 target- big Gonzo who is an absolute beast. The O-line looks poor and the defensive line could be better, however the biggest factor for the Falcons- is no running back. This is a big concern for them. My other big disappointment is the Texans. Shirt can you blame Schuab for everything? The dude has thrown a pick 6 4 times on the trot.

Shirt- Here’s a couple of interesting Pick 6 facts.  Prior to throwing one against the 49ers, he had thrown one in three consecutive games, a record he shared with the likes of Peyton Manning and John Elway.  People are now saying “well, he has the record to himself” after throwing 4 in 4, except that Peyton actually threw 4 in 2 games one year, so on one view, he is still no worse than the best QB of the modern era.  My own personal view is the focus on pick 6’s is totally overrated – whether an interception is turned over for a touchdown is less relevant than whether he throws an interception in the first place, and the circumstances around it.  So while 4 pick sixes looks bad as a stat, 4 regular interceptions could be just as bad, depending on field position, scoreline, ease of throw etc.   Unfortunately for Schuab he’s throwing up garbage to go with his bad luck and probably deserves to be picked off for scores.  It is painful to watch, particularly for someone who had them as comfortable division winners and potential super bowl contenders.   Bzzzt.  And speaking of Bzzzt – it would appear that…the…Cardinals…are….not…that…bad.  There I said it.  Bravo Carson Palmer.  Bravo.

 

Gargy– Finally… Tony Romo. I am not going to blame him, he is so much fun to watch. He threw for over 500 yards and 5 x TD’s who cares if he threw and INT in the 4th quarter, I know Manning is good but how about the Cowboys get a few more stops.

 

Shirt- No way that loss was Romo’s fault.  The guy put up some incredible numbers and did all he could to win the game.  The fact his defence couldn’t support him enough such that the game turned on one small error is shameful.  I feel for the guy, but sweet baby Jesus, what do you have to do to beat Peyton Manning??   Speaking of Peyton, the Colts seem to be doing a-ok without him.  I was a big fan of Luck when he was at Stanford, and it’s hard not to like the guy.  The news out of Indy this morning is that running back Ahmad Bradshaw will face season ending neck surgery, so their mid season Richardson trade is looking even cleverer now – he’s yet to be great for them, but they will at least have a solid option in the back field.

 

The good, the Bad the Ugly

The Good- Andrew Luck, Geno Smith

The Bad- Shirty’s division winner picks (Texans, Falcons to name 2), the Carolina Panthers; Shirty’s recent punting form

The Ugly- The Giants. The Jags are sh!t everyone knows and expects that, the Giants are staring down the barrel of their worst finish in a very long time