Gargy’s weekly Winners- NFL week 10

I copped yet another spray from my mate Shirt about being slack and not putting up my tips, however, in the weeks I have placed I reckon I am behind, where as I hope all the followers are following Shirt- the dude is on fire. So onto week 10, here is what I like-

The Steelers!! Holy shit I hear you say, “Gargy you bandwagon hopper on er aron and yep, over-reaction”, I am hoping on but not just because the Steelers are playing well the Jets suck. I love Mike Vick, he is my favourite player of all time, but this isn’t 8 year ago when he was the leading rushing QB in the NFL at the Falcons, he is 34 years, and he cant get the protection he needs to stay upright and unfortunately when he gets tackled the ball just seems to come loose.
Take the -4 on the Steelers at $1.91. Plus big ben has thrown 12 TD’s in the past 2 weeks, 12!! That’s friggin amazing.

If you are a greedy punter like yours truly, roll it into Denver vs Oakland. $1.17 is better than bank interest and whilst Manning had a really bad game last week vs the Pats, the Raiders wont trouble him- lock it in.

Shirt you can have $6.50 for the Raiders to go 0-16, do you like it bro? I have looked at their schedule and they have 3 potential games to break the cherry, they might beat your chargers in SD in 2 weeks, if they lose that here is the remaining games; Home to KC, At Rams (maybe a win), Home to 49ers, At KC, Home to Bills (maybe last hurrah?) at Denver. Stats show they probably finish 1-15, but wow- what a shit team!

I am going to go back to my best outsider and in the space of 24 hours have totally changed my mind, in our podcast (which will be hitting pelicanpunting in the not too distant future) I called the Ravens the best lock as a head to head bet this week, I am off them and whilst I wont stake any cash, I am taking the points with the Titans this week, why? I looked and Ravens injury toll and its massive, they don’t have a secondary and basically have injuries all over the park. The Titans have been terrible this year, but 10 points will be enough, I think Zach Mettenberg will put on a good show vs the ordinary Ravens secondary and the dude will take shots all day, he may throw a pick or two, but I think will be capable of throwing a few TD’s. So if you win money punting on the ponies, pokies or have recently your grandma has given you some cash for your birthday- get it on the Titans with the start.

Advertisements

Gargy’s Week 8 NFL Best Bets

Howdy punters I just spent 48 with none other than Shirty and what an experience! The most obnoxious drunk you have ever met, but lots of fun to get on the drink with, plus we found plenty of winners, so its time to turn our attention to week 8 in the NFL

I feel there are a few locks this week and the first one is the early game being played in London where the Lions will smash up the Falcons. The Lions are $1.50 had to head and that is a gift. The Lions have really good defence this year, (actually ranked #1) I think Megatron wont play so Stafford has one less weapon to chuck to, but still has a great receivers available. The Falcons are a mess, their O line is horrible and I think Matt Ryan will have a very uncomfortable night. Back the Lions- they win.

The Packers vs Saints is a great game and I cannot believe the Packers are outsiders, there is a heap of money for the Saints, the Packers opened up $2.05 and they out to $2.17, the Sainst are into $1.67 which is horrible. The Saints are lucky that the NFC South stinks, the saints are 2 and 4 but only 1 win behind the Panthers (who are very hot and cold). Therefore given how bad the NFC South is I am not saying this is do or die for the saints, if they slip to 2 and 5 its far from ideal but not season ending, because they can smash up the Falcons and Bucs and beat the Panthers and could make the play offs with a record of 7 and 9. The over/under is 55 points which is high, but if the saints can turn it on it could get there- personally leave the points out and simply take the Packers with a small start. +3.5 @$1.61

This week I will multi the above 2 bets for a juicy collect of $245.

The year of the over-reaction

The year of the over-reaction.

My learned friend Shirty is calling 2014 the year of the dawg, however I am calling 2014 the year of the over-reaction. I know the NFL is lovely nice and compact season, but I cant think of another sport where everyone, including the analysts, bookies and myself flip flop on a weekly basis, want some examples? Ok here goes-

Week 5- why on earth would I back against Brady and Bellicheck, why ? I wasn’t alone, so the Pats got off to a slow start to the year and everyone including myself loaded up on the undefeated Bengals in week 5, the reason cited were- Brady isn’t going all that well, their O line is garbage, undefeated Bengals with great pass rush etc. etc. ridiculous!! The Pats aren’t a great team, but they are still a 9-10 win team, the Afc East is a shit division- damn it! Massive over-reaction.

The Atlanta Falcons- they don’t get a week, they get an entire section. At the start of the year I thought they were an ordinary team, Matt Ryan is a great QB, he has a nice set of receivers to chuck the ball to, but their defence is average… They come out straight out the gate and beat the saints in week 1, and most people (including myself) thought that the Saints would go real deep this year- so week 2 given the fact the Falcons beat the Saints in week 1, we load up on the Falcons +5.5 vs the Bengals and they do absolutely nothing. Week 3 its Thursday night Football and they smash the Bucs and then head into week 4 against the Vikings who have QB questions, still missing the NFL’s best running back and they get smoked by the Vikings, week 5 they get beaten again away from home to the Giants- who to be fair are improving- however the Falcons are going into the “do not bet bucket” for 2014. They will lose more than they win- but may pop up and screw your multi’s, if you have to include bet against them when they are away as they do play better at home.

The Saints- Hands up who has managed to catch the Saints 3/5 times at the line? I am calling bullshit!! Here is the tale of the tape- Week 1 – vs Falcons, started favourites by 3 and lost, week 2 5 point favourite vs Browns and lost, Week 3, -9.5 favourite and covered vs Vikings at home, week 4 again started favourites by 3 and got smoked by 21 points away vs Dallas, week 5 this time at home -11 favourites vs the Bucs who are dreadful and they won in OT. Jimmy Graham is now injured, their big name safety signing Jarius Bryd is done for the year (but was playing like a busted anyway), I had them going deep- I cant see them making the playoffs.
The final team is killing punters in 2014 is the bills. In week 1 and 2 on the road the Bills started as Dawgs and won outright both games, and very few people tipped against them, instead taking the Bears and Dolphins, so week 3 at home to the Chargers they somehow start 2.5 points favourites, everyone flip flops and hops on the Bills bandwagon only to see them get beaten. Week 4 was an avoid game because they were away to the Texans and lost and so away in week 5 to the Lions (who were at home and 3 and 1 for the season) the Bills starts with a 4.5 points start and what do they do? They win outright of course.

What was the biggest play in week 5? How about Dez Bryant going up and getting this ball and then kicking a game winning FG

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/HWVzTcZW2gk" frameborder=”allowfullscreen>

In summary what is the point of this article? Stick with your pick. If you back a team and they go down in a week at home, don’t be shy to double down on them

NFL Rewind- Week 5

Week 5 what we learned

Gargy– Sorry folks, no MNF preview but I think we saved some cash, as I would have had the Falcons beating the Jets. I watched a fair bit of the game and say what you want about Rex Ryan and the Jets; but their defence was excellent, especially their ability to stop the run.  Geno was great- so give it up for the NY Jets.

Gargy- Can anyone name 2 more disappointing teams thus far than the Texans and Falcons.? The Falcons are now 4 wins behind division rivals the Saints and don’t look anything like the team from season 2012. Matt Ryan still looks great, however he has really only has 1 target- big Gonzo who is an absolute beast. The O-line looks poor and the defensive line could be better, however the biggest factor for the Falcons- is no running back. This is a big concern for them. My other big disappointment is the Texans. Shirt can you blame Schuab for everything? The dude has thrown a pick 6 4 times on the trot.

Shirt- Here’s a couple of interesting Pick 6 facts.  Prior to throwing one against the 49ers, he had thrown one in three consecutive games, a record he shared with the likes of Peyton Manning and John Elway.  People are now saying “well, he has the record to himself” after throwing 4 in 4, except that Peyton actually threw 4 in 2 games one year, so on one view, he is still no worse than the best QB of the modern era.  My own personal view is the focus on pick 6’s is totally overrated – whether an interception is turned over for a touchdown is less relevant than whether he throws an interception in the first place, and the circumstances around it.  So while 4 pick sixes looks bad as a stat, 4 regular interceptions could be just as bad, depending on field position, scoreline, ease of throw etc.   Unfortunately for Schuab he’s throwing up garbage to go with his bad luck and probably deserves to be picked off for scores.  It is painful to watch, particularly for someone who had them as comfortable division winners and potential super bowl contenders.   Bzzzt.  And speaking of Bzzzt – it would appear that…the…Cardinals…are….not…that…bad.  There I said it.  Bravo Carson Palmer.  Bravo.

 

Gargy– Finally… Tony Romo. I am not going to blame him, he is so much fun to watch. He threw for over 500 yards and 5 x TD’s who cares if he threw and INT in the 4th quarter, I know Manning is good but how about the Cowboys get a few more stops.

 

Shirt- No way that loss was Romo’s fault.  The guy put up some incredible numbers and did all he could to win the game.  The fact his defence couldn’t support him enough such that the game turned on one small error is shameful.  I feel for the guy, but sweet baby Jesus, what do you have to do to beat Peyton Manning??   Speaking of Peyton, the Colts seem to be doing a-ok without him.  I was a big fan of Luck when he was at Stanford, and it’s hard not to like the guy.  The news out of Indy this morning is that running back Ahmad Bradshaw will face season ending neck surgery, so their mid season Richardson trade is looking even cleverer now – he’s yet to be great for them, but they will at least have a solid option in the back field.

 

The good, the Bad the Ugly

The Good- Andrew Luck, Geno Smith

The Bad- Shirty’s division winner picks (Texans, Falcons to name 2), the Carolina Panthers; Shirty’s recent punting form

The Ugly- The Giants. The Jags are sh!t everyone knows and expects that, the Giants are staring down the barrel of their worst finish in a very long time