NFL BEST BETS- Gargy’s tips

Hello punters
We have made it to the play offs and I have to say I am not all that excited in week 1 of the post season, still I will find ways to make $$$.

Before we break down the games I wanted to see what home field means in the play offs, so I looked back over the past 5 years and excluding the superbowl (which is played at a neutral venue) home teams win around 60% of the time, but If there is a week where the road team win its week 1 of the play offs, as they have won 9/20 matches- which is an ok strike rate.
Home teams have won 14/20 games in week 2- again not surprising as the two top seeds are rested.
For those who want to know what the stats are for the conference championships 6 out of the last 10 home teams won. But for Punters who are thinking of dropping all 4 home teams into a parlay in week 1 of the play offs think again!

Cards ($ 3.42) at Panthers $1.34), Cards +6.5.
The poor Cards cannot take a trick, injuries have really caught up with them and they are now left with Ryan Lindley to lead the team into the play offs and whilst their defence is still good they cannot score points; 17, 6, 6, 14, 18, 3, 14 is what they have scored in the past 7 games.
The Panthers have won 4 games and so that is good form isn’t it? Well lets check who they have beaten- the Falcons, The Brown, The Bucs, The Saints who combined had 22 wins and 46 losses- so winning form is good form, but the teams they are playing are trash. Avoid the line and head to head and have the total score to be under 38.5 points @$1.91

Ravens ($2.47) at Steelers $1.57, Ravens +3.
I think this will be the best game of the weekend as these AFC north rivals know each other very well and match up well against each other. The Steelers will be without Le’vean Bell who was the best running back in the NFL this year and the Ravens welcome back huge unit Heloti Ngata who plugs holes and makes finding running lanes difficult. I think the match up where it all matters is big Ben vs the Ravens (horrible) secondary and ultimately the Steelers will be too strong and will live to fight another day. Take the Steelers head to head $1.57

Bengals ($2.57) at Indy $1.53, Bengals +3.5
I will sum this game up really easily- do you trust Andrew Luck in a play off game? I do. And do you trust Andy Dalton in a play off? Nah me neither. Poor Andy, I would like to see him play well and get the monkey off his back. I said it in the pod cast, I can see the Bengals jumping out of the blocks early, so bet in the run, wait until the 3rd or 4th quarter when the colts are behind and $2.50+ and watch Andy fade and Luck rally for a home win.

Lions ($3.55) at Cowboys ($1.35), lions +6.5
I don’t trust Matthew Stafford, he has soo many weapons available to him and he has been largely disappointing, it’s a shame because being an eagles fan I would love to see the Cowboys get beaten but I just cant see it happening. The lions defence is great and they will challenge Dallas’ excellent O-line and their secondary will compete with Dez, Witten etc.. but at the end of the day I think the Boys will use Murray, and Romo will manage the game well enough to beat the lions. The over/under in this game is 48 and I think it’s a touch too high.

Good luck punters, I hope you find plenty of winners

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NFL Season Preview AFC North

Part 8- The Preview for the AFC North Division.

Prices- (Division Winner)

•   Cincinnati Bengals $2.70

•   Pittsburgh Steelers $2.80

•   Baltimore Ravens $3.25

•   Cleveland Browns $10

Under/Over regular Season wins

•   Cincinnati 8.5 wins Over $1.63, under $2.30

•   Pittsburg 9 wins over $1.71, under $2.15

•   Baltimore 8.5 wins Over $1.91, under $1.91

•   Cleveland 6 wins Over $1.58, under $2.40

Gargy- Tough division, very tough- 3 good teams and my perceived worst team aren’t disgraceful. I like the $2.80 on offer for Cinci. Last year they were 10-6 and I reckon they will there or thereabouts again this year. Dalton is a solid QB good, AJ Green is an awesome target to throw to, they added another target, drafting TE Eifert and they have a good group of defensive pass rushers. Their schedule is tough, having to play the NFC North and AFC East, but still I have them winning the division and going over 8.5 wins, shirt you will probably tell me why how terrible Dalton is and how he hasn’t won a career play off match, are you with me?

Shirt- Yeah, agree Gargy, tough Division, with the Bengals the standout for mine, although I think the division title will be a dogfight.  The Bengals have come along in leaps and bounds in recent years, and they have fixed their biggest problem by developing a decent QB in Dalton.   He seems to have come along well and is a confident, no nonsense athlete, notwithstanding the fact he is a fanta pants.  The Bengals also feature in this year’s Hard Knocks reality show on ESPN – catch it if you get the chance, then you too can say things like “Gee I hope the big Estonian defensive end and 2013 draft pick Margus Hunt gets a start this year”

Gargy- Pittsburgh were very under-whelming last year and still finishing 8 and 8, losses included the Titans, Chargers, Browns and Cowboys. Big Ben is a so resilient and just keeps keeping on and I think they will be there or thereabouts. I have them finishing second in the division but grabbing a wildcard spot and I reckon they will 9 games and it will be a push bet; so do what you want with that bit of gold. Shirt Steelers fan?

Shirt- Don’t like the Steelers fan, and very cool on Big Ben as a human.   They are a very consistent team though, and I can’t see them falling to any worse than 8-8 this year.  The problem is I can’t see them doing much better.  They’ll lift for the big games and drop a few that should be easy wins, so avoid them as a betting proposition would be my advice.  Without a playoff berth in the offing, what’s on the cards for 2013?  Well, Rothelsa…Rothliseb…Big Ben will break the franchise touchdown pass record (212) if he throws at least 22 TD passes for the year.  He will also tick over 30,000 yards total, and should do so in week 1.  Exciting stuff hey.

Gargy- Ravens, defending superbowl champs, I think I saw a stat somewhere that the Ravens had lost 8 of their players from the winning super bowl team, chuck in a season ending injury to TE Pitta and who does Joe Flacco chuck the ball to? The problems is they paid Flacco so much money there simply wasn’t enough left over. Given their lack of depth and tough schedule I can’t see them winning 9 games, I am on unders, Shirt?

Shirt-  It still baffles me that the jeopardy answer to “The player with the biggest contract  in professional football history” is “Who is Joe Flacco”; mainly because “Who is Joe Flacco?” was a perfectly legitimate non-jeopardy question a few years ago.  He’s got a good arm.  He managed to sneak his way to a Superbowl with a fantastic, if aging, team and a genius for a coach.   But I’m sorry, he ain’t an elite quarterback.  And the fact he is being spoken about as such, particularly in a league that is full to the brim with future hall of famers, shows how retarded most sports fans are.  But never fear, the hype will subside this year when the Ravens slip back to a 9 win season and their superbowl victory retreats into memory.

Gargy- Browns. They are the 4th ranked team in this division. They will improve- Brandon Weeden was ok for a rookie but they will be around 6 or so wins. Shirt?

Shirt –The best thing about Cleveland is the road out of town.  I’m kidding – I’ve never been there so thankfully I have never had to try and find a way to leave.    And the Browns certainly don’t look like enticing me there any time soon.  They will have another losing season and will treat 2013 as a year focused on “rebuilding and looking to the future” which is something Cleveland fans have been hearing for time immemorial.