Gargy’s MNF Selection- Week 6

I cannot wait to read Shirt week 6 wrap up where the home teams were hammered and managed only 4 win or so wins and where the dogs covered approximately just under 50% of matches for week 6. But we are onto Monday Night Football and my question of the week? Is this the Rams biggest game of the year? I believe it is because look at their upcoming 6 matches-

Home to Seattle

At Kansas

At 49ers

At Arizona

Home to Denver

At San Diego..Wow by my books that is at least 5 losses, with maybe a win at Kansas, but could very well be 6 losses coming up, therefore I feel they will lift in this week edition of MNF but ultimately fall short.

The over under line is 43.5 AND THE BOOKIES ARE SO LAZY, the Niners are allowing an average of 22 PPG, the Rams are averaging scoring 21 points per game and I believe it will go over and whilst I think it will be a close match the niners cover the 3.5 points.

I am in a bit of a slump, but we are plonking $100 on -3.5/Overs at $3.86. Hop on board..

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Shirty’s Thursday Night Fever

San Francisco (1.57 and -3 @ 1.83) @ St Louis (2.45 and +3 @ 2.00)

I’m struggling a tad for inspiration this week after a second wheel fell off the San Francisco bandwagon last week, and the Rams were, let’s face it, fairly pathetic against the Cowboys.    But, as Laurene Powell used to say, “If a Job’s worth doing, it’s worth doing properly”.  So let’s try and get back some of that Thursday Night Mojo.

It strikes me that this week is a potential watershed game for one of these teams.  The Rams played their best football against the 9’ers in their two match ups last year, and started this season with a win, a close-ish loss to the Falcons, before a blow out loss last week against Dallas.  The most worrying stat from that game – they were 0-12 on third down conversions until the final play of the game.  That’s right, they very nearly went an entire match without a single third down conversion.  They are in an incredibly tough division, but if they are to set their foot on the path to being a playoff contender in years to come, they need to improve markedly, and this is a great place to start.  The 49’ers meanwhile looked anaemic against the Colts last week and are in real danger of slipping out contention all together unless they get things turned around, and fast.  Up against an average secondary, Kaep couldn’t find an open receiver for love nor money last week, and in terms of targets, things don’t look much better this week – Vernon Davis is still likely to be sidelined, while  Crabtree and Manningham are still weeks or months away.  Throw in Anton “Amy Winehouse” Smith and it’s no wonder the 49’ers are doing it tough.   So who does Kaep throw to – well, Anquan Boldin for one.  He used him brilliantly in week one, and he needs to go back there.  I also think he needs to be prepared to play to his strength and use the read option more liberally.   Meanwhile the defense has to step up and be the wall that they were in 2012.

Incredibly, last week’s loss was the first time under coach Harbaugh that San Francisco has dropped 2 games in a row.  If they drop 3, they are in huge trouble, and I just can’t see it happening.  Great adversity breeds great Champions.  Or something.  I’m sticking with Kaep and the boys to get their shit together off the back of a big game from Franky Gore against a porous running defense…

So the bet…$30 on Frank Gore to rush for more than 75.5 yards, and $20 on the 49ers -3.5/over 41.5 @ 3.75.   Git some!

NFL Rewind – Week 2

What we learned in Week 2

1.  Shirt – Colin Kaepernick is not a football machine sent through a time rift from the 23rd century to destroy all opposition.  He and the 49ers were beaten (comprehensively) by an awesome Seattle pass defense which includes this guy;

And an even more awesome running game from Marshawn “Beastmode” Lynch.  Russell Wilson had, by most measures, a pretty average game himself, but when you have Lynch in the backfield doing his thing, you can afford for your QB to have an off day.  If you didn’t see the game, it was a bit like this;

2.  Shirt – The Steelers probably are as bad as we thought they were.  Taking nothing away from the Bengals, who were pretty shit themselves, the Steelers let their usually awesome defence slip, and when you leave it up to that shambles of an offence, you just ain’t going to get it done.  Can they spring back from 0-2 to make the playoffs?  I’m going to go ahead and say…no.

3.  Gargy – At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the week one themes continue; games are generally close, and home teams generally win.  The homes sides won 12/16, and 10/16 games were decided by a TD or less.

4. Gargy – Tom Brady has been kissed on the dick by a fairy.  Week 1, the Bills with a rookie QB in their first game; week 2, the disfunctional and unwatchable Jets, and week 3 – the Bucs, hardly the toughest team in the comp.  Plenty of time for Tom to work with his new receivers, and let Gronk and Amendola recover from their injuries.  They finally get a tough game in Week 4 away to Atlanta.

5.  Older Brothers are the best.  Peyton had (another) awesome game and took apart the Giants on Sunday, leaving little bro Eli with no answers.  And so the natural order of things is stable and right.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly;

The Good – Beastmode; the Broncos Offence; the Broncos Defence; Chargers out hustling the Eagles

The Bad – Richard Sherman’s dancing; the 49’ers offence; the Rams (they lost to the Cardinals FFS); Thunderstorms

The Ugly – Dashon Goldson’s tackle on Derrick Sproles; Josh Freeman’s 9/25 for 125yds; the Steelers Offence; the entire Patriots v Jets game

NFL Week 1- Rewind

What we learned from Week 1.

1. Wow, what a weekend!  12 games decided by 7 points or less, and around half a dozen that were decided in the final minute or so.  Upsets, surprises, big hits.  Week 1 had it all.  What did we learn?  That the NFL looks set to once again deliver as the most consistently exciting competition in the world.

2. Shirt: The Raiders aren’t that bad.  Or is it that the Colts aren’t that good?  Jury is still out on this one.  I am going to do a bit more work on this game before I come to a decision, but my initial feeling is that it could be an opportunity to get a bit of value on the Dolphins next week when they face the Colts at home. Gargy: I owe Pryor an apology- because considering it was his second game- he showed a lot of promise.

3. Gargy: The Eagles are back!  Too early?  Maybe, but if the Vick, McCoy & Kelly Show can keep things going at that pace for even part of the season they are going to be a force to be reckoned with.  Shirt: It was like watching a game in fast-forward at some stages, which is a vast improvement on the super slow motion replays that usually dominate any NFL broadcast.

4. Shirt: The Giants (6 Turnovers.  SIX!), Chargers (giving up a 28-7 lead), Packers (getting owned in the air by Kaep, after being owned on the ground by Kaep last year), Bucs (as if getting beaten by the Jets isn’t bad enough they did it by giving away a stupid 15 metre* penalty in the dying seconds – that’s infinitely worse), the Steelers (woeful, just woeful) and the Jaguars (virtually getting shut out, but for a safety, to a team that went 2-14 last year) have some soul searching to do.  And probably some mild hearing damage from the abuse they should have all received from their respective coaches.

5. Gargy: We didn’t “learn this”, as we have spoken about this previously- home teams win in the NFL- a lot. This week it was only 9 teams and that is still a majority. But there is money to made at the line if you can pick the right game and take the appropriate start; carrying on from the above point, only 7 teams covered the line in the opening week and of those 7 teams , 5 were at home. The other 2 teams that covered were the Chiefs away at the Jags (who are dreadful) and the valiant Panthers going down at the death to a quality Seahawks outfit

Finally the good, the bad and the ugly for week 1

The Good-
Packers vs 49’ers – 2 quality teams who will be playing in the playoffs later in the year; Peyton Manning; Reggie Bush; Shirt’s Punting

The Bad
Blaine Gabbart, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, LaVonte David

The Ugly
Clay Matthew’s hit on Kaepernick; the Jacksonville Jaguars; the Pittsburgh Steelers; Gargy’s punting.

* Listen, I know they use yards, but we’re Australian, and as far as I’m concerned, a yard is the thing you have out the back of your house.  And its usually full of deadly snakes and spiders and shit.