NFL Division Games- Gargy’s preview

Here we go guys, four great games spread over two days. If anyone thinks they can multi up the 4 home team favourites this weekend- ensure you are it with someone else’s money, there are four great games this weekend but I smell an upset, here I will go through the games so we can make a bit of coin.

Ravens $3.50 at Pats $1.34 (- 7)

Over/Under is 47.5

A great game to start the weekend. A lot of people will say the Ravens match up well with the Pats and even have the wood on the Pats as they have won two of their past 3 games, however newsflash people- games in 2009 when the Ravens had Reed, Rice, Lewis do not count as it was freaking 2009, 5 years ago! This game is won and lost on how well the Pats O-line protects the golden boy Brady and how Suggs, Dhumerval et al pressure Brady. If they get pressure on him they will go a long way to protecting their ordinary secondary and ultimately winning the game. If Brady has time I don’t think there is a better passer of under 15 yards. He threads the needle every time. I think it will be close. I like Flacco as he has the ability to make big plays in big games, Steve Smith is a beast and is always hard to handle and I don’t think there is a better kick off returned than Jacoby Jones. For the pats apart from the no name O-line, it’s the Tom and Gronk show. There is no other player who can determine results like the Gronk. I have got the Pats winning and the game will be unders.

Panthers $5 at Seahawks $1.19 (-10.5)

Over/Under line is 38.5

$1.19 is a horrible price but I just cannot see the panthers winning, I cant. The panthers have great defence and have won 5 games in a row and winning form is good form, but who have they beaten? Last week they beat the Cardinals who put up a massive 78 yards of offence all game, before that wins over the Saints, Bucs, Browns and other cellar dwellers. I know you can only beat what is in front of you, but those teams are bad teams and so don’t be fooled into thinking the Panthers are on a roll. The panthers will have main objective- to Stop Marshawn Lynch from running, the Seahawks offence isn’t as good as last year when they won the superbowl however I would argue that Russell Wilson is playing at a higher level. The Panthers might keep it close for the first two or three quarters, but I feel they get run over the top of. I think Newton will be pressured and will make a HUGE mistake in the 3rd quarter. The Seahawks cover and it goes overs

Dallas $3.20 at Green Bay $1.37 (-5.5)

Over/Under 52

The line opened at 7.5 and is into -5.5 and this is a game where I could potentially see an upset. The Cowboys game plan surely has to be keep Rodgers on the sideline for as long as possible, control the game, dominate the time in possession to protect the defence to keep them away from Rodgers as long as possible. Use Murray as much as possible and don’t allow Romo to throw the ball more than say 25-30 times, it sounds great in theory. Being an Eagles fan I dislike the Cowboys, but there is something different about them this year, Romo doesn’t look like he is going to have a meltdown like he has so many time in the past in December- they seem to know what their game plan is and they don’t change from it. Murray is great whitten is good, Dez is just about the best WR in the game and their defence is actually playing ok. I thought when Lee went down in the off-season they would have the worst defence in the NFL, its no where near the best, but it is a long way from being the worst- can the secondary contain Rodgers? Can they come up with 1 or two really big plays to create a turnover ? I think this will be a really entertaining match. I have it going over and I keep flip-flopping, I think Green bay covers, but that could change tomorrow

Colts $3.47 at Broncos$1.34 (-7)

Over/Under 54

I think another game which has the potential for an upset. Manning is great, he is going to the hall of fame but for me I have this doubt about him. His play for the last 4-6 weeks hasn’t been as good as it was at the start of the year, CJ Anderson has come from no where and is killing it, the Thomas’ are going great and their defence is good. They deserve to be favourites but Indy are dangerous. Name your cliché… they are up against Andrew luck who is the best young QB in the game, Indy have a terrible running game but good receivers, its their defence and mainly their secondary which will determine if they can spring the upset.

I think the line of 54 is too high and I think the Colts win which will determine who wins this game.

So there it is- pick which games you like and mesh them together. You cannot have the teams head to head, you need to include a line bet or two and or under/overs lines. My main bet will be Seattle -10.5/overs into Pats winning at $4.10.

 

Good luck

Gargy

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NFL Week 2 Best Bets

 

Gargy- My bet of the weekend is the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Redskins. Head to head is $1.30 the line of -7.5 is $1.91. I like somewhere in the middle. I am basing this purely on form of the previous week. Aaron Rodgers will employ the no huddle/up temp offence, and whilst they don’t have the same running game (as the Eagles), they do have a better passing game with Rodgers under the gun. They will put plenty of points on the skins. With regards to defense- they know what is coming to Lambeau as they just saw off Colin Kap as RG3 is another QB who likes to run, but he is underdone. 50 points is the overs/unders and I think it will go over. The blockbuster of the round surely has to be The Jaguars at Oakland Right? P1ss off… The blockbuster is the Niners at Seahawks. These teams don’t like each other, Pete Carroll doesn’t like Jim Harbaugh, they both recruited well in the off-season and thy both have deep rosters, it’s a shame our very own Jesse “Tha Monster” Williams is gone for the season. Last year the Seahawks were 8 and 0 at home and surely that is the only reason why they are starting favourites. $2.20 is tremendous value for the niners, but I probably will simply watch and not bet on this great match. Shirt you must be looking forward to this one? What else stands out mate as you are on a roll?

 

Shirt- Agree Gargy, the Niners are definitely overs in the big one. Seattle scraped home against a spirited Panthers outfit last week, while the Niners took Greenbay to school. Will definitely be getting myself a piece of the $2.22 for the win currently available on centrebet.

The other game I am really looking forward to is the Broncos v Giants, the battle of the bros. I have a younger brother and we have had our battles over the years. Unlike the Manning boys though, our fights have rarely been in front of 50,000 screaming fans. Broncos in a high scorer. 

A couple of other games to watch out for – I like the Lions -1.5 away to the Cards (well, der) and the Bengals to get back on track and punish the Steelers – take on the -6.5 line. Finally a quick mention of the Jags vs Oakland game – find out which network is showing it in your local area, and please be careful not to accidentally flick it on. It will ruin your entire day.

In other news, Dirty Sanchez has been placed on some list that means he is about ready to return, meaning it is only a matter of weeks, perhaps days, before the Jets exchange an average rookie QB for an average regular QB, Gargy you like anything else?

Mitch- The other games I like include My Philadelphia Eagles at $1.35 at home to the chargers. Was there a more impressive team in week 1 than the Eagles? Chargers were good in their season opener but I feel they won’t be able to stop the running game of the eagles; I think it will be another high scorer but I like the $1.35. Finally the last team I like is also the Detroit Lions @ Cardinals. Now I am breaking one my of NFL punting rules of away teams but I just like the lions at $1.75 on offer.