Gargy’s weekly Winners- NFL week 10

I copped yet another spray from my mate Shirt about being slack and not putting up my tips, however, in the weeks I have placed I reckon I am behind, where as I hope all the followers are following Shirt- the dude is on fire. So onto week 10, here is what I like-

The Steelers!! Holy shit I hear you say, “Gargy you bandwagon hopper on er aron and yep, over-reaction”, I am hoping on but not just because the Steelers are playing well the Jets suck. I love Mike Vick, he is my favourite player of all time, but this isn’t 8 year ago when he was the leading rushing QB in the NFL at the Falcons, he is 34 years, and he cant get the protection he needs to stay upright and unfortunately when he gets tackled the ball just seems to come loose.
Take the -4 on the Steelers at $1.91. Plus big ben has thrown 12 TD’s in the past 2 weeks, 12!! That’s friggin amazing.

If you are a greedy punter like yours truly, roll it into Denver vs Oakland. $1.17 is better than bank interest and whilst Manning had a really bad game last week vs the Pats, the Raiders wont trouble him- lock it in.

Shirt you can have $6.50 for the Raiders to go 0-16, do you like it bro? I have looked at their schedule and they have 3 potential games to break the cherry, they might beat your chargers in SD in 2 weeks, if they lose that here is the remaining games; Home to KC, At Rams (maybe a win), Home to 49ers, At KC, Home to Bills (maybe last hurrah?) at Denver. Stats show they probably finish 1-15, but wow- what a shit team!

I am going to go back to my best outsider and in the space of 24 hours have totally changed my mind, in our podcast (which will be hitting pelicanpunting in the not too distant future) I called the Ravens the best lock as a head to head bet this week, I am off them and whilst I wont stake any cash, I am taking the points with the Titans this week, why? I looked and Ravens injury toll and its massive, they don’t have a secondary and basically have injuries all over the park. The Titans have been terrible this year, but 10 points will be enough, I think Zach Mettenberg will put on a good show vs the ordinary Ravens secondary and the dude will take shots all day, he may throw a pick or two, but I think will be capable of throwing a few TD’s. So if you win money punting on the ponies, pokies or have recently your grandma has given you some cash for your birthday- get it on the Titans with the start.

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NFL Week 1- Rewind

What we learned from Week 1.

1. Wow, what a weekend!  12 games decided by 7 points or less, and around half a dozen that were decided in the final minute or so.  Upsets, surprises, big hits.  Week 1 had it all.  What did we learn?  That the NFL looks set to once again deliver as the most consistently exciting competition in the world.

2. Shirt: The Raiders aren’t that bad.  Or is it that the Colts aren’t that good?  Jury is still out on this one.  I am going to do a bit more work on this game before I come to a decision, but my initial feeling is that it could be an opportunity to get a bit of value on the Dolphins next week when they face the Colts at home. Gargy: I owe Pryor an apology- because considering it was his second game- he showed a lot of promise.

3. Gargy: The Eagles are back!  Too early?  Maybe, but if the Vick, McCoy & Kelly Show can keep things going at that pace for even part of the season they are going to be a force to be reckoned with.  Shirt: It was like watching a game in fast-forward at some stages, which is a vast improvement on the super slow motion replays that usually dominate any NFL broadcast.

4. Shirt: The Giants (6 Turnovers.  SIX!), Chargers (giving up a 28-7 lead), Packers (getting owned in the air by Kaep, after being owned on the ground by Kaep last year), Bucs (as if getting beaten by the Jets isn’t bad enough they did it by giving away a stupid 15 metre* penalty in the dying seconds – that’s infinitely worse), the Steelers (woeful, just woeful) and the Jaguars (virtually getting shut out, but for a safety, to a team that went 2-14 last year) have some soul searching to do.  And probably some mild hearing damage from the abuse they should have all received from their respective coaches.

5. Gargy: We didn’t “learn this”, as we have spoken about this previously- home teams win in the NFL- a lot. This week it was only 9 teams and that is still a majority. But there is money to made at the line if you can pick the right game and take the appropriate start; carrying on from the above point, only 7 teams covered the line in the opening week and of those 7 teams , 5 were at home. The other 2 teams that covered were the Chiefs away at the Jags (who are dreadful) and the valiant Panthers going down at the death to a quality Seahawks outfit

Finally the good, the bad and the ugly for week 1

The Good-
Packers vs 49’ers – 2 quality teams who will be playing in the playoffs later in the year; Peyton Manning; Reggie Bush; Shirt’s Punting

The Bad
Blaine Gabbart, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, LaVonte David

The Ugly
Clay Matthew’s hit on Kaepernick; the Jacksonville Jaguars; the Pittsburgh Steelers; Gargy’s punting.

* Listen, I know they use yards, but we’re Australian, and as far as I’m concerned, a yard is the thing you have out the back of your house.  And its usually full of deadly snakes and spiders and shit.

NFL Week 1- Best Bets

Gargy- As we thought the Broncos got off to a flying start, but it is time to help our readers find plenty of winners in the remaining games and win them some cash, so Shirt it is time to put our money where our mouths are. For mine the bet of the weekend is the colts at home to Oakland, but before I dive into the who, the how and the why I want to discuss Matt Flynn. Shirt can you give me a bigger loser in NFL? Seriously, he sat behind Rodgers at Green Bay and got one game (when they rested Aaron Rodgers) and he threw 5 x TD’s and all of a sudden he was the best back up QB in the NFL. Last season was traded to the Seahawks and lost the starting gig to rookie Russell Wilson in the pre-season. This year he moved to Oakland and has somehow lost the starting job again, this time to Terrell Pryor. I admit it, I had never heard of Pryor, but all the stats show he is a mobile QB who can run, passing accuracy- well shirt you would do better. But back to Flynn, surely he joins Sanchez, Kevin Kolb and a host of other QB’s who simply aren’t good enough to be starters in the NFL. Given Oakland is starting Pryor and the Colts are starting Andrew Luck, I think I will stick with the Colts. Luck will have the luxury of chucking to Wayne and Hilton and he can use Ahmad Bradshaw for rushing (as he joined the colts from the Giants). Now I am going to be a pu$$y and use the PYOL option and nibble off a few points. The head to head price is $1.25, the line of minus 10 is $1.91, so I will be in the middle somewhere. Shirt what is your best bet of the weekend? Best spekky and other bit of gold and have you got? Which game excites you? Niners vs Green Bay? And who is the biggest loser in the NFL?

Shirt-  Is it too late to say what morals I thought the Broncos would be in that game??  I actually feel for Matt Flynn a bit – he must be absolutely horrible in training camp, because I remember he had one start for the Packers a few years ago and absolutely blitzed it, throwing up Rogers like numbers.  You just know he is going to bob up at the Cardinals in a year or two before going on to be a QB coach at a Division 2 college.  Speaking of the Cardinals, my bet of the weekend for mine is going to kick off a theme for my punting for the year – back whoever is playing the Cardinals.  This week it is St Louis – take the -4.5 @ $1.90 and join me in watching Arizona collapse into a heap.  If they happen to string a few together I will re-assess, but until then I will be donning a giant orange wig and doing this to the Cards all year;

Shirt– My other bet is Miami away to Cleveland @$2.  If I’ve put the boot into the Browns and picked the Dolphins as my big improvers, this is a no brainer.  If I’m wrong about those two, then I am throwing good money after bad here.

Two big games I am looking forward to this week, which I will just be enjoying rather than throwing cash at.  The first is the Packers v the 49ers.  Love both of these teams, and think they are every chance of playing off for the NFC Championship at the end of the year.  This will be a great game to get a read on where they are at  – being only a 16 game season it is really important to notch up these big game wins early and set the tone for the year.  The other great match up is the Giants v Cowboys where we will get to see whether the Cowboys have finally got enough going for them to get back to their winning ways.  I was watching ESPN SportsCentre this morning and Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones was talking about being so excited about the start of the season that he was up at 4.30am.  Given he is a 70 year old man, my guess is that he probably doesn’t make it much past 4.30am any morning without having to drain the lizard.  As far as picks go, I think you are safe taking the home teams in each of those games, so it’s 49’ers and Cowboys for mine. You like anything else Gargy?

Gargy- Yes mate the other bet I like is in the early Monday night game which sees the Redskins at home to my Philadelphia Eagles, Its hurts to say, but I like the line/total double which is the Skins -4.5./over 51 at the juicy price of $3.70. I am on #Teamvick & I think Chip Kelly will help the Eagles offence immediately. Everyone bagged Vick for the turnovers last year- I ask those knockers to get tape of Demetress Bell and King Dunlap trying to block pass rushers last year- OMG… my 85 year old grandma would have provided better coverage- a fit O-line to block properly, Shady McCoy rushing, a fit Michael Vick- nope points wont be the eagles problem this year, the other side of the ball….well not so much. It isn’t easy switching from 4-3 or wide 9 or whatever they ran last year to a 3-4, they bought in a few new guys in, but essentially the line backers are set up for 3-4 and their secondary will be better as they moved Non-D Asomugha and DRC on, but its still weak. And how did the Eagles prepare for their season opener and this big match? How a about a fight between Riley Cooper and hothead Cary Williams- see vision below. For the Redskins it doesn’t matter RG3 has not played in the Pre-Season- The Eagles will score plenty but also leak plenty- get on the $3.70.