The year of the over-reaction

The year of the over-reaction.

My learned friend Shirty is calling 2014 the year of the dawg, however I am calling 2014 the year of the over-reaction. I know the NFL is lovely nice and compact season, but I cant think of another sport where everyone, including the analysts, bookies and myself flip flop on a weekly basis, want some examples? Ok here goes-

Week 5- why on earth would I back against Brady and Bellicheck, why ? I wasn’t alone, so the Pats got off to a slow start to the year and everyone including myself loaded up on the undefeated Bengals in week 5, the reason cited were- Brady isn’t going all that well, their O line is garbage, undefeated Bengals with great pass rush etc. etc. ridiculous!! The Pats aren’t a great team, but they are still a 9-10 win team, the Afc East is a shit division- damn it! Massive over-reaction.

The Atlanta Falcons- they don’t get a week, they get an entire section. At the start of the year I thought they were an ordinary team, Matt Ryan is a great QB, he has a nice set of receivers to chuck the ball to, but their defence is average… They come out straight out the gate and beat the saints in week 1, and most people (including myself) thought that the Saints would go real deep this year- so week 2 given the fact the Falcons beat the Saints in week 1, we load up on the Falcons +5.5 vs the Bengals and they do absolutely nothing. Week 3 its Thursday night Football and they smash the Bucs and then head into week 4 against the Vikings who have QB questions, still missing the NFL’s best running back and they get smoked by the Vikings, week 5 they get beaten again away from home to the Giants- who to be fair are improving- however the Falcons are going into the “do not bet bucket” for 2014. They will lose more than they win- but may pop up and screw your multi’s, if you have to include bet against them when they are away as they do play better at home.

The Saints- Hands up who has managed to catch the Saints 3/5 times at the line? I am calling bullshit!! Here is the tale of the tape- Week 1 – vs Falcons, started favourites by 3 and lost, week 2 5 point favourite vs Browns and lost, Week 3, -9.5 favourite and covered vs Vikings at home, week 4 again started favourites by 3 and got smoked by 21 points away vs Dallas, week 5 this time at home -11 favourites vs the Bucs who are dreadful and they won in OT. Jimmy Graham is now injured, their big name safety signing Jarius Bryd is done for the year (but was playing like a busted anyway), I had them going deep- I cant see them making the playoffs.
The final team is killing punters in 2014 is the bills. In week 1 and 2 on the road the Bills started as Dawgs and won outright both games, and very few people tipped against them, instead taking the Bears and Dolphins, so week 3 at home to the Chargers they somehow start 2.5 points favourites, everyone flip flops and hops on the Bills bandwagon only to see them get beaten. Week 4 was an avoid game because they were away to the Texans and lost and so away in week 5 to the Lions (who were at home and 3 and 1 for the season) the Bills starts with a 4.5 points start and what do they do? They win outright of course.

What was the biggest play in week 5? How about Dez Bryant going up and getting this ball and then kicking a game winning FG

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In summary what is the point of this article? Stick with your pick. If you back a team and they go down in a week at home, don’t be shy to double down on them

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NFL Week 4- Monday Night Football

Gargy- Miami Dolphins $3.35, New Orleans Saints $1.34, -6.5 $1.91

Two undefeated teams face off in the big easy to round out week 4 and it will be a great game with the Dolphins traveling the New Orleans. My old mate Shirty believed in the Dolphins from before the season kicked off, I was more of a sceptic; but so far this season they have beaten the Browns (as was to be expected) however they also defeated the Colts and Falcons who both played in the post season last year.

The Saints will be the best team that the Dolphins have faced thus far and I feel they will be too good for the Fins. Drew Brees and the Saints have been going great, Graham at TE is a Beast, the rest of the receivers are very solid and their defence has been great. I like the Saints -6.5/Under 47.5 @$3.40, I will have $40 on that and Jimmy Graham to score the first TD @ $6.