NFL BEST BETS- Gargy’s tips

Hello punters
We have made it to the play offs and I have to say I am not all that excited in week 1 of the post season, still I will find ways to make $$$.

Before we break down the games I wanted to see what home field means in the play offs, so I looked back over the past 5 years and excluding the superbowl (which is played at a neutral venue) home teams win around 60% of the time, but If there is a week where the road team win its week 1 of the play offs, as they have won 9/20 matches- which is an ok strike rate.
Home teams have won 14/20 games in week 2- again not surprising as the two top seeds are rested.
For those who want to know what the stats are for the conference championships 6 out of the last 10 home teams won. But for Punters who are thinking of dropping all 4 home teams into a parlay in week 1 of the play offs think again!

Cards ($ 3.42) at Panthers $1.34), Cards +6.5.
The poor Cards cannot take a trick, injuries have really caught up with them and they are now left with Ryan Lindley to lead the team into the play offs and whilst their defence is still good they cannot score points; 17, 6, 6, 14, 18, 3, 14 is what they have scored in the past 7 games.
The Panthers have won 4 games and so that is good form isn’t it? Well lets check who they have beaten- the Falcons, The Brown, The Bucs, The Saints who combined had 22 wins and 46 losses- so winning form is good form, but the teams they are playing are trash. Avoid the line and head to head and have the total score to be under 38.5 points @$1.91

Ravens ($2.47) at Steelers $1.57, Ravens +3.
I think this will be the best game of the weekend as these AFC north rivals know each other very well and match up well against each other. The Steelers will be without Le’vean Bell who was the best running back in the NFL this year and the Ravens welcome back huge unit Heloti Ngata who plugs holes and makes finding running lanes difficult. I think the match up where it all matters is big Ben vs the Ravens (horrible) secondary and ultimately the Steelers will be too strong and will live to fight another day. Take the Steelers head to head $1.57

Bengals ($2.57) at Indy $1.53, Bengals +3.5
I will sum this game up really easily- do you trust Andrew Luck in a play off game? I do. And do you trust Andy Dalton in a play off? Nah me neither. Poor Andy, I would like to see him play well and get the monkey off his back. I said it in the pod cast, I can see the Bengals jumping out of the blocks early, so bet in the run, wait until the 3rd or 4th quarter when the colts are behind and $2.50+ and watch Andy fade and Luck rally for a home win.

Lions ($3.55) at Cowboys ($1.35), lions +6.5
I don’t trust Matthew Stafford, he has soo many weapons available to him and he has been largely disappointing, it’s a shame because being an eagles fan I would love to see the Cowboys get beaten but I just cant see it happening. The lions defence is great and they will challenge Dallas’ excellent O-line and their secondary will compete with Dez, Witten etc.. but at the end of the day I think the Boys will use Murray, and Romo will manage the game well enough to beat the lions. The over/under in this game is 48 and I think it’s a touch too high.

Good luck punters, I hope you find plenty of winners

Gargys Best Bets- NFL week 13

Hello folks, I have been picking winners on the podcast, however not writing up on the blog.
Week 13- the best games of the year so far. Aussies do yourself a favour, get on the sauce on Thursday night, call in sick to work on Friday and spend the day on the lounge slightly hungover watching some great games, give yourself a sleep in and miss the bears/Lions game but make sure you watch the Cowboys v Eagles and Niners vs Seahawks- two absolute blockbusters!!!
I think Dallas wins, it is still November and Romo wont fade until December, he is 6 and 1 on Thanksgiving day games- I think they just win. The $1.55 is short but I think they do win and they cover (as hard as that is to say)
The last game of the day is a cracker; Niners vs Seahawks and these teams hate each other, I think it is loser goes home. $1.86 for the niners at home and I think they will be too good for the Seahawks.
The other two great games of the weekend; Pats at Green Bay. The Pats are $2.57 H2H or +3 @$1.91 which is great value. Both teams are great teams and I even at Green Bay I cant bet against Brady, I just cant.
The other great game is Denver at Kansas, Shirt likes the Chiefs, I am going to sit this one out.
Happy punting

NFL week 2 Monday Night Football

Gargy- Two first round losers face off in the second edition of Monday Night Football.  No team wants to start the year zero and 2 but that’s what I believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking at.  Last week  Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 5 times by the Titans, and I consider the Bengals a far superior defensive unit, so if the Steelers offensive line doesn’t improve in this game, and fast, this could get ugly.  [Shirt – not that an 0-2 start has bothered them in the past.  They’ve gone 0-2 four times in the last 25 years and finished each time better than .500 , making the playoffs 3 times.  But as they say, records are made for breaking…]

Receiver AJ Green is a super talent, Cinci have a great defensive line, Dalton is a solid QB and I think they will get it done. Cinci are $1.38 head to head and I am all over that like calamine lotion.  The line is at -6.5 and whilst I think they will cover that, there were a lot of close games on the weekend and I am a tad spooked. Plus I try to be a bit cautious with Division rivalaries as teams tend to lift, no matter how bad they are travelling. The over/under is 41 and I think it will be under, but again I am not going to get greedy. Unlike my good mate Shirt who is allegedly betting $10k a throw, I am simply saying $40 on the Bengals at $1.38

NFL Week 2 Best Bets

 

Gargy- My bet of the weekend is the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Redskins. Head to head is $1.30 the line of -7.5 is $1.91. I like somewhere in the middle. I am basing this purely on form of the previous week. Aaron Rodgers will employ the no huddle/up temp offence, and whilst they don’t have the same running game (as the Eagles), they do have a better passing game with Rodgers under the gun. They will put plenty of points on the skins. With regards to defense- they know what is coming to Lambeau as they just saw off Colin Kap as RG3 is another QB who likes to run, but he is underdone. 50 points is the overs/unders and I think it will go over. The blockbuster of the round surely has to be The Jaguars at Oakland Right? P1ss off… The blockbuster is the Niners at Seahawks. These teams don’t like each other, Pete Carroll doesn’t like Jim Harbaugh, they both recruited well in the off-season and thy both have deep rosters, it’s a shame our very own Jesse “Tha Monster” Williams is gone for the season. Last year the Seahawks were 8 and 0 at home and surely that is the only reason why they are starting favourites. $2.20 is tremendous value for the niners, but I probably will simply watch and not bet on this great match. Shirt you must be looking forward to this one? What else stands out mate as you are on a roll?

 

Shirt- Agree Gargy, the Niners are definitely overs in the big one. Seattle scraped home against a spirited Panthers outfit last week, while the Niners took Greenbay to school. Will definitely be getting myself a piece of the $2.22 for the win currently available on centrebet.

The other game I am really looking forward to is the Broncos v Giants, the battle of the bros. I have a younger brother and we have had our battles over the years. Unlike the Manning boys though, our fights have rarely been in front of 50,000 screaming fans. Broncos in a high scorer. 

A couple of other games to watch out for – I like the Lions -1.5 away to the Cards (well, der) and the Bengals to get back on track and punish the Steelers – take on the -6.5 line. Finally a quick mention of the Jags vs Oakland game – find out which network is showing it in your local area, and please be careful not to accidentally flick it on. It will ruin your entire day.

In other news, Dirty Sanchez has been placed on some list that means he is about ready to return, meaning it is only a matter of weeks, perhaps days, before the Jets exchange an average rookie QB for an average regular QB, Gargy you like anything else?

Mitch- The other games I like include My Philadelphia Eagles at $1.35 at home to the chargers. Was there a more impressive team in week 1 than the Eagles? Chargers were good in their season opener but I feel they won’t be able to stop the running game of the eagles; I think it will be another high scorer but I like the $1.35. Finally the last team I like is also the Detroit Lions @ Cardinals. Now I am breaking one my of NFL punting rules of away teams but I just like the lions at $1.75 on offer.

NFL Week 1- Best Bets

Gargy- As we thought the Broncos got off to a flying start, but it is time to help our readers find plenty of winners in the remaining games and win them some cash, so Shirt it is time to put our money where our mouths are. For mine the bet of the weekend is the colts at home to Oakland, but before I dive into the who, the how and the why I want to discuss Matt Flynn. Shirt can you give me a bigger loser in NFL? Seriously, he sat behind Rodgers at Green Bay and got one game (when they rested Aaron Rodgers) and he threw 5 x TD’s and all of a sudden he was the best back up QB in the NFL. Last season was traded to the Seahawks and lost the starting gig to rookie Russell Wilson in the pre-season. This year he moved to Oakland and has somehow lost the starting job again, this time to Terrell Pryor. I admit it, I had never heard of Pryor, but all the stats show he is a mobile QB who can run, passing accuracy- well shirt you would do better. But back to Flynn, surely he joins Sanchez, Kevin Kolb and a host of other QB’s who simply aren’t good enough to be starters in the NFL. Given Oakland is starting Pryor and the Colts are starting Andrew Luck, I think I will stick with the Colts. Luck will have the luxury of chucking to Wayne and Hilton and he can use Ahmad Bradshaw for rushing (as he joined the colts from the Giants). Now I am going to be a pu$$y and use the PYOL option and nibble off a few points. The head to head price is $1.25, the line of minus 10 is $1.91, so I will be in the middle somewhere. Shirt what is your best bet of the weekend? Best spekky and other bit of gold and have you got? Which game excites you? Niners vs Green Bay? And who is the biggest loser in the NFL?

Shirt-  Is it too late to say what morals I thought the Broncos would be in that game??  I actually feel for Matt Flynn a bit – he must be absolutely horrible in training camp, because I remember he had one start for the Packers a few years ago and absolutely blitzed it, throwing up Rogers like numbers.  You just know he is going to bob up at the Cardinals in a year or two before going on to be a QB coach at a Division 2 college.  Speaking of the Cardinals, my bet of the weekend for mine is going to kick off a theme for my punting for the year – back whoever is playing the Cardinals.  This week it is St Louis – take the -4.5 @ $1.90 and join me in watching Arizona collapse into a heap.  If they happen to string a few together I will re-assess, but until then I will be donning a giant orange wig and doing this to the Cards all year;

Shirt– My other bet is Miami away to Cleveland @$2.  If I’ve put the boot into the Browns and picked the Dolphins as my big improvers, this is a no brainer.  If I’m wrong about those two, then I am throwing good money after bad here.

Two big games I am looking forward to this week, which I will just be enjoying rather than throwing cash at.  The first is the Packers v the 49ers.  Love both of these teams, and think they are every chance of playing off for the NFC Championship at the end of the year.  This will be a great game to get a read on where they are at  – being only a 16 game season it is really important to notch up these big game wins early and set the tone for the year.  The other great match up is the Giants v Cowboys where we will get to see whether the Cowboys have finally got enough going for them to get back to their winning ways.  I was watching ESPN SportsCentre this morning and Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones was talking about being so excited about the start of the season that he was up at 4.30am.  Given he is a 70 year old man, my guess is that he probably doesn’t make it much past 4.30am any morning without having to drain the lizard.  As far as picks go, I think you are safe taking the home teams in each of those games, so it’s 49’ers and Cowboys for mine. You like anything else Gargy?

Gargy- Yes mate the other bet I like is in the early Monday night game which sees the Redskins at home to my Philadelphia Eagles, Its hurts to say, but I like the line/total double which is the Skins -4.5./over 51 at the juicy price of $3.70. I am on #Teamvick & I think Chip Kelly will help the Eagles offence immediately. Everyone bagged Vick for the turnovers last year- I ask those knockers to get tape of Demetress Bell and King Dunlap trying to block pass rushers last year- OMG… my 85 year old grandma would have provided better coverage- a fit O-line to block properly, Shady McCoy rushing, a fit Michael Vick- nope points wont be the eagles problem this year, the other side of the ball….well not so much. It isn’t easy switching from 4-3 or wide 9 or whatever they ran last year to a 3-4, they bought in a few new guys in, but essentially the line backers are set up for 3-4 and their secondary will be better as they moved Non-D Asomugha and DRC on, but its still weak. And how did the Eagles prepare for their season opener and this big match? How a about a fight between Riley Cooper and hothead Cary Williams- see vision below. For the Redskins it doesn’t matter RG3 has not played in the Pre-Season- The Eagles will score plenty but also leak plenty- get on the $3.70.

NFL Season Preview Summary

 

Gargy– Righto Shirt, we have previewed the divisions, we are under 24 hours before kick off for the season. So, I want your division winners and ultimate winner, here are my divisions winners-

NFC-

West- Seahawks $2.10. 49’ers are also $2.10 and they are the only ones who can win- so there is money to be made there.

North- Packers- $1.70

South- Falcons- $2.50, tremendous value and if they lose at NO week 1, you will get an even better price

East- Dallas- $3 In Romo we trust, holy sh!t did I just write that?

AFC

West- Broncos $1.34, better than bank interest

North- Bengals, $2.70; Toughest division in NFL

South- Texans, $1.40

East- Patriots, a horrible $1.22, but again better than bank interest, so put the monthly mortgage and or rent on them

NFC Winner- Falcons

AFC Winner- Denver Broncos

Superbowl Winner- Manning to join little Bro with a second ring hit me Shirt-

Shirt

NFC-

West – 49ers.  I’d be laying the Seahawks at that price

North- Can’t go past the packers

South – Faaaalcons.  Though it pains me to say it.

East – Its an agree-athon. Cowboys to finally get their sht together.

AFC

West – Broncos first, then daylight

East – let’s be controversial and lay the Pats here.  Miami in a boilover!

North – ick.  The Bengals.  With no confidence.

South – Hard to see the Texans challenged here.

NFC winner – SF

AFC winner – Texans

SB champ – San Fran