NFL BEST BETS- Gargy’s tips

Hello punters
We have made it to the play offs and I have to say I am not all that excited in week 1 of the post season, still I will find ways to make $$$.

Before we break down the games I wanted to see what home field means in the play offs, so I looked back over the past 5 years and excluding the superbowl (which is played at a neutral venue) home teams win around 60% of the time, but If there is a week where the road team win its week 1 of the play offs, as they have won 9/20 matches- which is an ok strike rate.
Home teams have won 14/20 games in week 2- again not surprising as the two top seeds are rested.
For those who want to know what the stats are for the conference championships 6 out of the last 10 home teams won. But for Punters who are thinking of dropping all 4 home teams into a parlay in week 1 of the play offs think again!

Cards ($ 3.42) at Panthers $1.34), Cards +6.5.
The poor Cards cannot take a trick, injuries have really caught up with them and they are now left with Ryan Lindley to lead the team into the play offs and whilst their defence is still good they cannot score points; 17, 6, 6, 14, 18, 3, 14 is what they have scored in the past 7 games.
The Panthers have won 4 games and so that is good form isn’t it? Well lets check who they have beaten- the Falcons, The Brown, The Bucs, The Saints who combined had 22 wins and 46 losses- so winning form is good form, but the teams they are playing are trash. Avoid the line and head to head and have the total score to be under 38.5 points @$1.91

Ravens ($2.47) at Steelers $1.57, Ravens +3.
I think this will be the best game of the weekend as these AFC north rivals know each other very well and match up well against each other. The Steelers will be without Le’vean Bell who was the best running back in the NFL this year and the Ravens welcome back huge unit Heloti Ngata who plugs holes and makes finding running lanes difficult. I think the match up where it all matters is big Ben vs the Ravens (horrible) secondary and ultimately the Steelers will be too strong and will live to fight another day. Take the Steelers head to head $1.57

Bengals ($2.57) at Indy $1.53, Bengals +3.5
I will sum this game up really easily- do you trust Andrew Luck in a play off game? I do. And do you trust Andy Dalton in a play off? Nah me neither. Poor Andy, I would like to see him play well and get the monkey off his back. I said it in the pod cast, I can see the Bengals jumping out of the blocks early, so bet in the run, wait until the 3rd or 4th quarter when the colts are behind and $2.50+ and watch Andy fade and Luck rally for a home win.

Lions ($3.55) at Cowboys ($1.35), lions +6.5
I don’t trust Matthew Stafford, he has soo many weapons available to him and he has been largely disappointing, it’s a shame because being an eagles fan I would love to see the Cowboys get beaten but I just cant see it happening. The lions defence is great and they will challenge Dallas’ excellent O-line and their secondary will compete with Dez, Witten etc.. but at the end of the day I think the Boys will use Murray, and Romo will manage the game well enough to beat the lions. The over/under in this game is 48 and I think it’s a touch too high.

Good luck punters, I hope you find plenty of winners

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NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

Gargy– Hey guys remember us? Well after a great start and a mid-season slump we gave our blog a bit of a break, but on the eve of the play offs I thought we would look back at this year and make a couple of play off predictions. The Pelican Punters club has earned our money back but it hasn’t been a great year. If you followed my division winners you would be slightly in front as I got 5/8, where as my good mate Shirt only managed 3/8 as he put a bit too much faith in the useless Dolphins. Neither of us saw the Falcons and Texan falling so far.

 

So this weekend- Wildcard weekend

Chiefs at Colts $1.91 each

A very tough start for the play offs; these teams met a few weeks back and the colts hammered the Chiefs and whilst I feel this game will be a lot closer I am taking the home team. I don’t like either of these teams’ chances next week; as the winner goes to the Patriots, but for this one- take Andrew Luck and his boys to win this one. I know Shirt likes the Colts with a small start and I think that is a smart bet in the event of a really close game.

 

Saints $2.13 @ Eagles $1.67 (-2.5)

The Saints are tremendous value @$2.13. Lots of people will show stats where they don’t play well away from home and in games in the outdoors, its true they prefer playing in domes and games in the big easy, but they are a good team. My Eagles offence is awesome; Nick Foles and Shady McCoy have been killing it, however their defence is bad. Last week they couldn’t contain Jason Witten, how on earth will they stop Jimmy Graham? The best news for Philly is the fact the Saints defence sucks also. It’s a no bet game for mine. Bet on Shady McCoy to rush for over 115 yards.

 

Chargers $3.20 @ Bengals $1.36(-7.5)

I will be in the minority whereby I think the Chargers are the best outsiders this weekend, as Andy Dalton has never won a play off game for the Bengals and they haven’t won a play off game for nearly 20 years. Their defence is excellent but I feel their attack can be hit and miss. In week 13 the Bengals beat the chargers at home and they kept Rivers quiet, but I reckon the Bengals will choke this weekend. Shirty predicted that Phillip Rivers would have a good year and he has been awesome. I feel he is due for a really bad games where he throws multiple picks, I just hope it’s not this game. For this one I am on the Chargers with the start and in the event of full disclosure I have had a sneaky $20 on the chargers to win the superbowl @$34.

 

49ers $1.67 @ Packers $2.20

The games of the week and before I tell you how to lose more money, what about the fans who will attend this game? It is going to be minus 25 degrees Celsius, that’s right MINUS 25 or minus 13 Fahrenheit if you are reading this from the USA. Wow….

I really like the niners and I think they can win this game. They have an excellent front 7 in defence, a great set of healthy receivers, Colin Kap is starting to look good again and they have Frank Gore to smash the ball when required. I know its risky betting against Aaron Rodgers but its his second game in about 2 months and last week the Bears made him look much better than he actually was.

I will hassle my partner in crime to put together a few of his witty comments before now and the superbowl.