NFL Division Games- Gargy’s preview

Here we go guys, four great games spread over two days. If anyone thinks they can multi up the 4 home team favourites this weekend- ensure you are it with someone else’s money, there are four great games this weekend but I smell an upset, here I will go through the games so we can make a bit of coin.

Ravens $3.50 at Pats $1.34 (- 7)

Over/Under is 47.5

A great game to start the weekend. A lot of people will say the Ravens match up well with the Pats and even have the wood on the Pats as they have won two of their past 3 games, however newsflash people- games in 2009 when the Ravens had Reed, Rice, Lewis do not count as it was freaking 2009, 5 years ago! This game is won and lost on how well the Pats O-line protects the golden boy Brady and how Suggs, Dhumerval et al pressure Brady. If they get pressure on him they will go a long way to protecting their ordinary secondary and ultimately winning the game. If Brady has time I don’t think there is a better passer of under 15 yards. He threads the needle every time. I think it will be close. I like Flacco as he has the ability to make big plays in big games, Steve Smith is a beast and is always hard to handle and I don’t think there is a better kick off returned than Jacoby Jones. For the pats apart from the no name O-line, it’s the Tom and Gronk show. There is no other player who can determine results like the Gronk. I have got the Pats winning and the game will be unders.

Panthers $5 at Seahawks $1.19 (-10.5)

Over/Under line is 38.5

$1.19 is a horrible price but I just cannot see the panthers winning, I cant. The panthers have great defence and have won 5 games in a row and winning form is good form, but who have they beaten? Last week they beat the Cardinals who put up a massive 78 yards of offence all game, before that wins over the Saints, Bucs, Browns and other cellar dwellers. I know you can only beat what is in front of you, but those teams are bad teams and so don’t be fooled into thinking the Panthers are on a roll. The panthers will have main objective- to Stop Marshawn Lynch from running, the Seahawks offence isn’t as good as last year when they won the superbowl however I would argue that Russell Wilson is playing at a higher level. The Panthers might keep it close for the first two or three quarters, but I feel they get run over the top of. I think Newton will be pressured and will make a HUGE mistake in the 3rd quarter. The Seahawks cover and it goes overs

Dallas $3.20 at Green Bay $1.37 (-5.5)

Over/Under 52

The line opened at 7.5 and is into -5.5 and this is a game where I could potentially see an upset. The Cowboys game plan surely has to be keep Rodgers on the sideline for as long as possible, control the game, dominate the time in possession to protect the defence to keep them away from Rodgers as long as possible. Use Murray as much as possible and don’t allow Romo to throw the ball more than say 25-30 times, it sounds great in theory. Being an Eagles fan I dislike the Cowboys, but there is something different about them this year, Romo doesn’t look like he is going to have a meltdown like he has so many time in the past in December- they seem to know what their game plan is and they don’t change from it. Murray is great whitten is good, Dez is just about the best WR in the game and their defence is actually playing ok. I thought when Lee went down in the off-season they would have the worst defence in the NFL, its no where near the best, but it is a long way from being the worst- can the secondary contain Rodgers? Can they come up with 1 or two really big plays to create a turnover ? I think this will be a really entertaining match. I have it going over and I keep flip-flopping, I think Green bay covers, but that could change tomorrow

Colts $3.47 at Broncos$1.34 (-7)

Over/Under 54

I think another game which has the potential for an upset. Manning is great, he is going to the hall of fame but for me I have this doubt about him. His play for the last 4-6 weeks hasn’t been as good as it was at the start of the year, CJ Anderson has come from no where and is killing it, the Thomas’ are going great and their defence is good. They deserve to be favourites but Indy are dangerous. Name your cliché… they are up against Andrew luck who is the best young QB in the game, Indy have a terrible running game but good receivers, its their defence and mainly their secondary which will determine if they can spring the upset.

I think the line of 54 is too high and I think the Colts win which will determine who wins this game.

So there it is- pick which games you like and mesh them together. You cannot have the teams head to head, you need to include a line bet or two and or under/overs lines. My main bet will be Seattle -10.5/overs into Pats winning at $4.10.

 

Good luck

Gargy

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Gargy’s weekly Winners- NFL week 10

I copped yet another spray from my mate Shirt about being slack and not putting up my tips, however, in the weeks I have placed I reckon I am behind, where as I hope all the followers are following Shirt- the dude is on fire. So onto week 10, here is what I like-

The Steelers!! Holy shit I hear you say, “Gargy you bandwagon hopper on er aron and yep, over-reaction”, I am hoping on but not just because the Steelers are playing well the Jets suck. I love Mike Vick, he is my favourite player of all time, but this isn’t 8 year ago when he was the leading rushing QB in the NFL at the Falcons, he is 34 years, and he cant get the protection he needs to stay upright and unfortunately when he gets tackled the ball just seems to come loose.
Take the -4 on the Steelers at $1.91. Plus big ben has thrown 12 TD’s in the past 2 weeks, 12!! That’s friggin amazing.

If you are a greedy punter like yours truly, roll it into Denver vs Oakland. $1.17 is better than bank interest and whilst Manning had a really bad game last week vs the Pats, the Raiders wont trouble him- lock it in.

Shirt you can have $6.50 for the Raiders to go 0-16, do you like it bro? I have looked at their schedule and they have 3 potential games to break the cherry, they might beat your chargers in SD in 2 weeks, if they lose that here is the remaining games; Home to KC, At Rams (maybe a win), Home to 49ers, At KC, Home to Bills (maybe last hurrah?) at Denver. Stats show they probably finish 1-15, but wow- what a shit team!

I am going to go back to my best outsider and in the space of 24 hours have totally changed my mind, in our podcast (which will be hitting pelicanpunting in the not too distant future) I called the Ravens the best lock as a head to head bet this week, I am off them and whilst I wont stake any cash, I am taking the points with the Titans this week, why? I looked and Ravens injury toll and its massive, they don’t have a secondary and basically have injuries all over the park. The Titans have been terrible this year, but 10 points will be enough, I think Zach Mettenberg will put on a good show vs the ordinary Ravens secondary and the dude will take shots all day, he may throw a pick or two, but I think will be capable of throwing a few TD’s. So if you win money punting on the ponies, pokies or have recently your grandma has given you some cash for your birthday- get it on the Titans with the start.

NFL Week 3- Monday Night Football.

 

Gargy- Ladies and Gentlemen for the rest of the season I am going to be Jon Gruden- Mr Monday Night and I have been given an ordinary game to preview; its the 1 and 2 Oakland Raiders at the 3 and 0 Denver Broncos. The Broncos are $1.08 and in any language that is horrendous value, but if a bank gave you an 8% interest rate for your term deposit, you would take it everyday of the week. For a slightly better return the half time/full time double is $1.16. Whilst my partner in crime thinks I don’t have any balls, I am a grinder and I will end up beating him this year- so folks stick with me.

This match is a tough one to line up, the broncos will win- but by how much? The Raiders were tipped by most good judges (plus Shirt and I) to run last, but they were only just beaten by the Colts in week 1 and then last week they flogged the worst team in the league the Jaguars.  The QB (Terelle Pryor) who I bagged before week 1 has been great; and whilst not in the same class as Colin Kaepernick/ Russell Wilson, Pryor does offer a great running option.

The Broncos have started the season so well, Peyton Manning has thrown 9 TD’s and no INT’s and they have racked up over 40 points in both games. Manning will be without one of his offensive line men who keep him safe (Ryan Clady) but that wont stop the Broncos. The line is set at 14.5 and I don’t like that much, so instead I will hop on the over 48.5 option at $1.91 with my remaining $30 this week