NFL BEST BETS- Gargy’s tips

Hello punters
We have made it to the play offs and I have to say I am not all that excited in week 1 of the post season, still I will find ways to make $$$.

Before we break down the games I wanted to see what home field means in the play offs, so I looked back over the past 5 years and excluding the superbowl (which is played at a neutral venue) home teams win around 60% of the time, but If there is a week where the road team win its week 1 of the play offs, as they have won 9/20 matches- which is an ok strike rate.
Home teams have won 14/20 games in week 2- again not surprising as the two top seeds are rested.
For those who want to know what the stats are for the conference championships 6 out of the last 10 home teams won. But for Punters who are thinking of dropping all 4 home teams into a parlay in week 1 of the play offs think again!

Cards ($ 3.42) at Panthers $1.34), Cards +6.5.
The poor Cards cannot take a trick, injuries have really caught up with them and they are now left with Ryan Lindley to lead the team into the play offs and whilst their defence is still good they cannot score points; 17, 6, 6, 14, 18, 3, 14 is what they have scored in the past 7 games.
The Panthers have won 4 games and so that is good form isn’t it? Well lets check who they have beaten- the Falcons, The Brown, The Bucs, The Saints who combined had 22 wins and 46 losses- so winning form is good form, but the teams they are playing are trash. Avoid the line and head to head and have the total score to be under 38.5 points @$1.91

Ravens ($2.47) at Steelers $1.57, Ravens +3.
I think this will be the best game of the weekend as these AFC north rivals know each other very well and match up well against each other. The Steelers will be without Le’vean Bell who was the best running back in the NFL this year and the Ravens welcome back huge unit Heloti Ngata who plugs holes and makes finding running lanes difficult. I think the match up where it all matters is big Ben vs the Ravens (horrible) secondary and ultimately the Steelers will be too strong and will live to fight another day. Take the Steelers head to head $1.57

Bengals ($2.57) at Indy $1.53, Bengals +3.5
I will sum this game up really easily- do you trust Andrew Luck in a play off game? I do. And do you trust Andy Dalton in a play off? Nah me neither. Poor Andy, I would like to see him play well and get the monkey off his back. I said it in the pod cast, I can see the Bengals jumping out of the blocks early, so bet in the run, wait until the 3rd or 4th quarter when the colts are behind and $2.50+ and watch Andy fade and Luck rally for a home win.

Lions ($3.55) at Cowboys ($1.35), lions +6.5
I don’t trust Matthew Stafford, he has soo many weapons available to him and he has been largely disappointing, it’s a shame because being an eagles fan I would love to see the Cowboys get beaten but I just cant see it happening. The lions defence is great and they will challenge Dallas’ excellent O-line and their secondary will compete with Dez, Witten etc.. but at the end of the day I think the Boys will use Murray, and Romo will manage the game well enough to beat the lions. The over/under in this game is 48 and I think it’s a touch too high.

Good luck punters, I hope you find plenty of winners

MNF- Gargy’s best bet

Howdy punters

 

Not long until MNF kicks off and two last start losers face off; The Steelers are $1.32 head to head at Titans. The Steelers win straight up, so if you’re a girly man take the $1.32 and put whatever cash you have in your wallet (sports betting account) on them and then tonight buy your wife/boyfriend/girlfriend a nice Chinese dinner. I am listening to my own advice and sticking with the team that cost me last week, sticking solid! They were horrific last week, they will be much better against the Titans this week. It wont be easy as the Titans record is poor but I think they are better than their record suggests; their attack is hopeless- they are ranked 31st for yards per game and 30th for scoring points per game, but 20th and 19th in defence for the same categories.

 

We here at PP are tragic punters and never settle on $1.32 pops, so you can take the line of-6.5 @ $1.91 which is slightly more enticing but I believe this game screams of unders, as I am following shirty’s wonderful analysis; where the Titans have only gone overs twice all season.

 

So I am taking the Steelers-5.5/unders 47.5 @ $2.87. The other bet I do like is the Titans to go under 19 points for the match @$1.91 and you could always use this market as a bit of a saver/hedge..

Gargy’s weekly Winners- NFL week 10

I copped yet another spray from my mate Shirt about being slack and not putting up my tips, however, in the weeks I have placed I reckon I am behind, where as I hope all the followers are following Shirt- the dude is on fire. So onto week 10, here is what I like-

The Steelers!! Holy shit I hear you say, “Gargy you bandwagon hopper on er aron and yep, over-reaction”, I am hoping on but not just because the Steelers are playing well the Jets suck. I love Mike Vick, he is my favourite player of all time, but this isn’t 8 year ago when he was the leading rushing QB in the NFL at the Falcons, he is 34 years, and he cant get the protection he needs to stay upright and unfortunately when he gets tackled the ball just seems to come loose.
Take the -4 on the Steelers at $1.91. Plus big ben has thrown 12 TD’s in the past 2 weeks, 12!! That’s friggin amazing.

If you are a greedy punter like yours truly, roll it into Denver vs Oakland. $1.17 is better than bank interest and whilst Manning had a really bad game last week vs the Pats, the Raiders wont trouble him- lock it in.

Shirt you can have $6.50 for the Raiders to go 0-16, do you like it bro? I have looked at their schedule and they have 3 potential games to break the cherry, they might beat your chargers in SD in 2 weeks, if they lose that here is the remaining games; Home to KC, At Rams (maybe a win), Home to 49ers, At KC, Home to Bills (maybe last hurrah?) at Denver. Stats show they probably finish 1-15, but wow- what a shit team!

I am going to go back to my best outsider and in the space of 24 hours have totally changed my mind, in our podcast (which will be hitting pelicanpunting in the not too distant future) I called the Ravens the best lock as a head to head bet this week, I am off them and whilst I wont stake any cash, I am taking the points with the Titans this week, why? I looked and Ravens injury toll and its massive, they don’t have a secondary and basically have injuries all over the park. The Titans have been terrible this year, but 10 points will be enough, I think Zach Mettenberg will put on a good show vs the ordinary Ravens secondary and the dude will take shots all day, he may throw a pick or two, but I think will be capable of throwing a few TD’s. So if you win money punting on the ponies, pokies or have recently your grandma has given you some cash for your birthday- get it on the Titans with the start.

NFL Rewind – Week 2

What we learned in Week 2

1.  Shirt – Colin Kaepernick is not a football machine sent through a time rift from the 23rd century to destroy all opposition.  He and the 49ers were beaten (comprehensively) by an awesome Seattle pass defense which includes this guy;

And an even more awesome running game from Marshawn “Beastmode” Lynch.  Russell Wilson had, by most measures, a pretty average game himself, but when you have Lynch in the backfield doing his thing, you can afford for your QB to have an off day.  If you didn’t see the game, it was a bit like this;

2.  Shirt – The Steelers probably are as bad as we thought they were.  Taking nothing away from the Bengals, who were pretty shit themselves, the Steelers let their usually awesome defence slip, and when you leave it up to that shambles of an offence, you just ain’t going to get it done.  Can they spring back from 0-2 to make the playoffs?  I’m going to go ahead and say…no.

3.  Gargy – At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the week one themes continue; games are generally close, and home teams generally win.  The homes sides won 12/16, and 10/16 games were decided by a TD or less.

4. Gargy – Tom Brady has been kissed on the dick by a fairy.  Week 1, the Bills with a rookie QB in their first game; week 2, the disfunctional and unwatchable Jets, and week 3 – the Bucs, hardly the toughest team in the comp.  Plenty of time for Tom to work with his new receivers, and let Gronk and Amendola recover from their injuries.  They finally get a tough game in Week 4 away to Atlanta.

5.  Older Brothers are the best.  Peyton had (another) awesome game and took apart the Giants on Sunday, leaving little bro Eli with no answers.  And so the natural order of things is stable and right.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly;

The Good – Beastmode; the Broncos Offence; the Broncos Defence; Chargers out hustling the Eagles

The Bad – Richard Sherman’s dancing; the 49’ers offence; the Rams (they lost to the Cardinals FFS); Thunderstorms

The Ugly – Dashon Goldson’s tackle on Derrick Sproles; Josh Freeman’s 9/25 for 125yds; the Steelers Offence; the entire Patriots v Jets game

NFL week 2 Monday Night Football

Gargy- Two first round losers face off in the second edition of Monday Night Football.  No team wants to start the year zero and 2 but that’s what I believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking at.  Last week  Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 5 times by the Titans, and I consider the Bengals a far superior defensive unit, so if the Steelers offensive line doesn’t improve in this game, and fast, this could get ugly.  [Shirt – not that an 0-2 start has bothered them in the past.  They’ve gone 0-2 four times in the last 25 years and finished each time better than .500 , making the playoffs 3 times.  But as they say, records are made for breaking…]

Receiver AJ Green is a super talent, Cinci have a great defensive line, Dalton is a solid QB and I think they will get it done. Cinci are $1.38 head to head and I am all over that like calamine lotion.  The line is at -6.5 and whilst I think they will cover that, there were a lot of close games on the weekend and I am a tad spooked. Plus I try to be a bit cautious with Division rivalaries as teams tend to lift, no matter how bad they are travelling. The over/under is 41 and I think it will be under, but again I am not going to get greedy. Unlike my good mate Shirt who is allegedly betting $10k a throw, I am simply saying $40 on the Bengals at $1.38

NFL Week 1- Rewind

What we learned from Week 1.

1. Wow, what a weekend!  12 games decided by 7 points or less, and around half a dozen that were decided in the final minute or so.  Upsets, surprises, big hits.  Week 1 had it all.  What did we learn?  That the NFL looks set to once again deliver as the most consistently exciting competition in the world.

2. Shirt: The Raiders aren’t that bad.  Or is it that the Colts aren’t that good?  Jury is still out on this one.  I am going to do a bit more work on this game before I come to a decision, but my initial feeling is that it could be an opportunity to get a bit of value on the Dolphins next week when they face the Colts at home. Gargy: I owe Pryor an apology- because considering it was his second game- he showed a lot of promise.

3. Gargy: The Eagles are back!  Too early?  Maybe, but if the Vick, McCoy & Kelly Show can keep things going at that pace for even part of the season they are going to be a force to be reckoned with.  Shirt: It was like watching a game in fast-forward at some stages, which is a vast improvement on the super slow motion replays that usually dominate any NFL broadcast.

4. Shirt: The Giants (6 Turnovers.  SIX!), Chargers (giving up a 28-7 lead), Packers (getting owned in the air by Kaep, after being owned on the ground by Kaep last year), Bucs (as if getting beaten by the Jets isn’t bad enough they did it by giving away a stupid 15 metre* penalty in the dying seconds – that’s infinitely worse), the Steelers (woeful, just woeful) and the Jaguars (virtually getting shut out, but for a safety, to a team that went 2-14 last year) have some soul searching to do.  And probably some mild hearing damage from the abuse they should have all received from their respective coaches.

5. Gargy: We didn’t “learn this”, as we have spoken about this previously- home teams win in the NFL- a lot. This week it was only 9 teams and that is still a majority. But there is money to made at the line if you can pick the right game and take the appropriate start; carrying on from the above point, only 7 teams covered the line in the opening week and of those 7 teams , 5 were at home. The other 2 teams that covered were the Chiefs away at the Jags (who are dreadful) and the valiant Panthers going down at the death to a quality Seahawks outfit

Finally the good, the bad and the ugly for week 1

The Good-
Packers vs 49’ers – 2 quality teams who will be playing in the playoffs later in the year; Peyton Manning; Reggie Bush; Shirt’s Punting

The Bad
Blaine Gabbart, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, LaVonte David

The Ugly
Clay Matthew’s hit on Kaepernick; the Jacksonville Jaguars; the Pittsburgh Steelers; Gargy’s punting.

* Listen, I know they use yards, but we’re Australian, and as far as I’m concerned, a yard is the thing you have out the back of your house.  And its usually full of deadly snakes and spiders and shit.