NFL Division Games- Gargy’s preview

Here we go guys, four great games spread over two days. If anyone thinks they can multi up the 4 home team favourites this weekend- ensure you are it with someone else’s money, there are four great games this weekend but I smell an upset, here I will go through the games so we can make a bit of coin.

Ravens $3.50 at Pats $1.34 (- 7)

Over/Under is 47.5

A great game to start the weekend. A lot of people will say the Ravens match up well with the Pats and even have the wood on the Pats as they have won two of their past 3 games, however newsflash people- games in 2009 when the Ravens had Reed, Rice, Lewis do not count as it was freaking 2009, 5 years ago! This game is won and lost on how well the Pats O-line protects the golden boy Brady and how Suggs, Dhumerval et al pressure Brady. If they get pressure on him they will go a long way to protecting their ordinary secondary and ultimately winning the game. If Brady has time I don’t think there is a better passer of under 15 yards. He threads the needle every time. I think it will be close. I like Flacco as he has the ability to make big plays in big games, Steve Smith is a beast and is always hard to handle and I don’t think there is a better kick off returned than Jacoby Jones. For the pats apart from the no name O-line, it’s the Tom and Gronk show. There is no other player who can determine results like the Gronk. I have got the Pats winning and the game will be unders.

Panthers $5 at Seahawks $1.19 (-10.5)

Over/Under line is 38.5

$1.19 is a horrible price but I just cannot see the panthers winning, I cant. The panthers have great defence and have won 5 games in a row and winning form is good form, but who have they beaten? Last week they beat the Cardinals who put up a massive 78 yards of offence all game, before that wins over the Saints, Bucs, Browns and other cellar dwellers. I know you can only beat what is in front of you, but those teams are bad teams and so don’t be fooled into thinking the Panthers are on a roll. The panthers will have main objective- to Stop Marshawn Lynch from running, the Seahawks offence isn’t as good as last year when they won the superbowl however I would argue that Russell Wilson is playing at a higher level. The Panthers might keep it close for the first two or three quarters, but I feel they get run over the top of. I think Newton will be pressured and will make a HUGE mistake in the 3rd quarter. The Seahawks cover and it goes overs

Dallas $3.20 at Green Bay $1.37 (-5.5)

Over/Under 52

The line opened at 7.5 and is into -5.5 and this is a game where I could potentially see an upset. The Cowboys game plan surely has to be keep Rodgers on the sideline for as long as possible, control the game, dominate the time in possession to protect the defence to keep them away from Rodgers as long as possible. Use Murray as much as possible and don’t allow Romo to throw the ball more than say 25-30 times, it sounds great in theory. Being an Eagles fan I dislike the Cowboys, but there is something different about them this year, Romo doesn’t look like he is going to have a meltdown like he has so many time in the past in December- they seem to know what their game plan is and they don’t change from it. Murray is great whitten is good, Dez is just about the best WR in the game and their defence is actually playing ok. I thought when Lee went down in the off-season they would have the worst defence in the NFL, its no where near the best, but it is a long way from being the worst- can the secondary contain Rodgers? Can they come up with 1 or two really big plays to create a turnover ? I think this will be a really entertaining match. I have it going over and I keep flip-flopping, I think Green bay covers, but that could change tomorrow

Colts $3.47 at Broncos$1.34 (-7)

Over/Under 54

I think another game which has the potential for an upset. Manning is great, he is going to the hall of fame but for me I have this doubt about him. His play for the last 4-6 weeks hasn’t been as good as it was at the start of the year, CJ Anderson has come from no where and is killing it, the Thomas’ are going great and their defence is good. They deserve to be favourites but Indy are dangerous. Name your cliché… they are up against Andrew luck who is the best young QB in the game, Indy have a terrible running game but good receivers, its their defence and mainly their secondary which will determine if they can spring the upset.

I think the line of 54 is too high and I think the Colts win which will determine who wins this game.

So there it is- pick which games you like and mesh them together. You cannot have the teams head to head, you need to include a line bet or two and or under/overs lines. My main bet will be Seattle -10.5/overs into Pats winning at $4.10.

 

Good luck

Gargy

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Gargys Best Bets- NFL week 13

Hello folks, I have been picking winners on the podcast, however not writing up on the blog.
Week 13- the best games of the year so far. Aussies do yourself a favour, get on the sauce on Thursday night, call in sick to work on Friday and spend the day on the lounge slightly hungover watching some great games, give yourself a sleep in and miss the bears/Lions game but make sure you watch the Cowboys v Eagles and Niners vs Seahawks- two absolute blockbusters!!!
I think Dallas wins, it is still November and Romo wont fade until December, he is 6 and 1 on Thanksgiving day games- I think they just win. The $1.55 is short but I think they do win and they cover (as hard as that is to say)
The last game of the day is a cracker; Niners vs Seahawks and these teams hate each other, I think it is loser goes home. $1.86 for the niners at home and I think they will be too good for the Seahawks.
The other two great games of the weekend; Pats at Green Bay. The Pats are $2.57 H2H or +3 @$1.91 which is great value. Both teams are great teams and I even at Green Bay I cant bet against Brady, I just cant.
The other great game is Denver at Kansas, Shirt likes the Chiefs, I am going to sit this one out.
Happy punting

The year of the over-reaction

The year of the over-reaction.

My learned friend Shirty is calling 2014 the year of the dawg, however I am calling 2014 the year of the over-reaction. I know the NFL is lovely nice and compact season, but I cant think of another sport where everyone, including the analysts, bookies and myself flip flop on a weekly basis, want some examples? Ok here goes-

Week 5- why on earth would I back against Brady and Bellicheck, why ? I wasn’t alone, so the Pats got off to a slow start to the year and everyone including myself loaded up on the undefeated Bengals in week 5, the reason cited were- Brady isn’t going all that well, their O line is garbage, undefeated Bengals with great pass rush etc. etc. ridiculous!! The Pats aren’t a great team, but they are still a 9-10 win team, the Afc East is a shit division- damn it! Massive over-reaction.

The Atlanta Falcons- they don’t get a week, they get an entire section. At the start of the year I thought they were an ordinary team, Matt Ryan is a great QB, he has a nice set of receivers to chuck the ball to, but their defence is average… They come out straight out the gate and beat the saints in week 1, and most people (including myself) thought that the Saints would go real deep this year- so week 2 given the fact the Falcons beat the Saints in week 1, we load up on the Falcons +5.5 vs the Bengals and they do absolutely nothing. Week 3 its Thursday night Football and they smash the Bucs and then head into week 4 against the Vikings who have QB questions, still missing the NFL’s best running back and they get smoked by the Vikings, week 5 they get beaten again away from home to the Giants- who to be fair are improving- however the Falcons are going into the “do not bet bucket” for 2014. They will lose more than they win- but may pop up and screw your multi’s, if you have to include bet against them when they are away as they do play better at home.

The Saints- Hands up who has managed to catch the Saints 3/5 times at the line? I am calling bullshit!! Here is the tale of the tape- Week 1 – vs Falcons, started favourites by 3 and lost, week 2 5 point favourite vs Browns and lost, Week 3, -9.5 favourite and covered vs Vikings at home, week 4 again started favourites by 3 and got smoked by 21 points away vs Dallas, week 5 this time at home -11 favourites vs the Bucs who are dreadful and they won in OT. Jimmy Graham is now injured, their big name safety signing Jarius Bryd is done for the year (but was playing like a busted anyway), I had them going deep- I cant see them making the playoffs.
The final team is killing punters in 2014 is the bills. In week 1 and 2 on the road the Bills started as Dawgs and won outright both games, and very few people tipped against them, instead taking the Bears and Dolphins, so week 3 at home to the Chargers they somehow start 2.5 points favourites, everyone flip flops and hops on the Bills bandwagon only to see them get beaten. Week 4 was an avoid game because they were away to the Texans and lost and so away in week 5 to the Lions (who were at home and 3 and 1 for the season) the Bills starts with a 4.5 points start and what do they do? They win outright of course.

What was the biggest play in week 5? How about Dez Bryant going up and getting this ball and then kicking a game winning FG

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In summary what is the point of this article? Stick with your pick. If you back a team and they go down in a week at home, don’t be shy to double down on them

NFL Week 6- Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football- Week 6

(Colts $1.77, Chargers $2.10, (+2 $1.91) Over/Under 49.5)

 

Gargy- Righto folks, stick with us- the weekend was an absolute wipeout with the shithouse Texans crushing my main bet, plus the Pelicans weekly multi, while my good mate Shirt paid the price for betting against Tom Brady,  so MNF sees the Colts head west to the Chargers.

I think the match will be close as I feel the Colts will have one eye on next weeks game when Peyton returns home for the first time and the Chargers will lift for the big national game, plus it will be a low scoring affair. Shirty’s boy Phillip Rivers has been pretty good this year and whilst he was ordinary against Oakland last week, if you wipe that game- his season has been good and he has put up great numbers. Luck has showed why he was #1 in the draft two years back, beating the Seahawks last week- he has a nice group of receivers to throw to, Richardson to pound the ground game and their defence is solid. Therefore I am taking the Colts win/Under 49.5 @$3.65 x $40.

NFL Rewind – Week 2

What we learned in Week 2

1.  Shirt – Colin Kaepernick is not a football machine sent through a time rift from the 23rd century to destroy all opposition.  He and the 49ers were beaten (comprehensively) by an awesome Seattle pass defense which includes this guy;

And an even more awesome running game from Marshawn “Beastmode” Lynch.  Russell Wilson had, by most measures, a pretty average game himself, but when you have Lynch in the backfield doing his thing, you can afford for your QB to have an off day.  If you didn’t see the game, it was a bit like this;

2.  Shirt – The Steelers probably are as bad as we thought they were.  Taking nothing away from the Bengals, who were pretty shit themselves, the Steelers let their usually awesome defence slip, and when you leave it up to that shambles of an offence, you just ain’t going to get it done.  Can they spring back from 0-2 to make the playoffs?  I’m going to go ahead and say…no.

3.  Gargy – At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the week one themes continue; games are generally close, and home teams generally win.  The homes sides won 12/16, and 10/16 games were decided by a TD or less.

4. Gargy – Tom Brady has been kissed on the dick by a fairy.  Week 1, the Bills with a rookie QB in their first game; week 2, the disfunctional and unwatchable Jets, and week 3 – the Bucs, hardly the toughest team in the comp.  Plenty of time for Tom to work with his new receivers, and let Gronk and Amendola recover from their injuries.  They finally get a tough game in Week 4 away to Atlanta.

5.  Older Brothers are the best.  Peyton had (another) awesome game and took apart the Giants on Sunday, leaving little bro Eli with no answers.  And so the natural order of things is stable and right.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly;

The Good – Beastmode; the Broncos Offence; the Broncos Defence; Chargers out hustling the Eagles

The Bad – Richard Sherman’s dancing; the 49’ers offence; the Rams (they lost to the Cardinals FFS); Thunderstorms

The Ugly – Dashon Goldson’s tackle on Derrick Sproles; Josh Freeman’s 9/25 for 125yds; the Steelers Offence; the entire Patriots v Jets game

Thursday Night Fever

SHIRT – What a farce Thursday Night Football is.  Oh sure, it’s hard on the players who have to back up after a limited rest and face a heightened risk of injury as a result and the coaches who have limited time to review film and plan their schemes, but…won’t somebody please think of the bloggers?!  I have enough going on in my life (e.g. my actual job) without having to analyse football on a Friday morning (timezones people, timezones).  I don’t get paid for this – hell, I’m not even sure anyone reads it.  And to add insult to injury, its finals footy here in Oz, and my turn to bet for my punters club.  There is so much going on in my brain (and my betting account) that I feel any comments I make on the game will be Ray Lewis like in their insightfulness and originality.

Rant done, to the game – it might be the fact I’m yet to have my morning coffee, but I think the Jets are a chance here to upset the Pats.  Amendola and Gronk are both out and I predict that Brady will have to seriously consider throwing to himself.  Sure, the Jets got lucky last week, but plenty of people have the Buccs flagged as a decent team this year.  Geno Smith should only improve (notwithstanding that the Dirty Sanchez is sooking that he won the competition for QB before getting injured) and will be keen to keep Dirty on the sideline for as long as possible.  The Jets are $5.55 for the win, which is juicy, but I’m not an idiot.  Looking deeper, the line is at +11.5 and the over/under is at 42.5, and I think it could be a low scorer with Brady having to throw and hope, so let’s have $10,000* on Jets+11.5/Total Game Score under 42.5 @ 3.60.

I’ll have some better bets for the weekend (shut up, I will), but let’s see if the Jets can prove last week wasn’t a complete fluke and line my pockets a bit in the process.

* I’m not actually having $10,000.  Are you insane??  I’m working on the theory that people respect you more if you bet big and assume you must know what you are on about.  I might be able to convince people I am more capable of this than I really am.  And yes, I acknowledge the footnote is probably not helpful